Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

001 
WWUS52 KGSP 282053
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
453 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCC023-282103-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0236.000000T0000Z-160928T2115Z/
BURKE NC-
453 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3606 8157 3585 8146 3582 8160 3582 8161
      3583 8163 3585 8164 3588 8171 3591 8175
      3592 8175 3593 8178 3595 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 247DEG 20KT 3590 8166 

$$

NCC027-282115-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0236.000000T0000Z-160928T2115Z/
CALDWELL NC-
453 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY...

AT 453 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
LENOIR...OR 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF GAMEWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LENOIR...GAMEWELL...HUDSON...CAJAH'S MOUNTAIN...PATTERSON AND
COLLETTSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WARNED
AREA. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. TURN OFF
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A
BATH OR SHOWER.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8157 3585 8146 3582 8160 3582 8161
      3583 8163 3585 8164 3588 8171 3591 8175
      3592 8175 3593 8178 3595 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 247DEG 20KT 3590 8166 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDG

150 
WWUS52 KGSP 282102
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
502 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCC027-282111-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0236.000000T0000Z-160928T2115Z/
CALDWELL NC-
502 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3606 8157 3585 8146 3582 8160 3582 8161
      3583 8163 3585 8164 3588 8171 3591 8175
      3592 8175 3593 8178 3595 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 247DEG 20KT 3592 8160 

$$

CDG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain over the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Sandhills of North Carolina through Thursday.
Meanwhile, an upper level low will drop south into the Ohio Valley
and linger there through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 PM Wednesday: A healthy cumulus field has developed
across the area east of the Blue Ridge. Convective initiation
is underway as well, but better coverage was noted across the
SC Midlands. Still think the fcst will catch up over the wrn
Piedmont during mid afternoon. A prime location might be in
the vicinity of the old differential heating boundary running
across the I-85 corridor from w of Charlotte to the Piedmont
Triad. The environment across the Piedmont is mildly compelling,
with sfc-based CAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, dCAPE above
800 J/kg, and SR helicity on the order of 100-150 m2/s2. Cannot
rule out the development of a few supercells over the Piedmont
thru late afternoon and the Supercell Composite Parameter on the
SPC mesoanalysis agrees. Our NC counties east of the Blue Ridge
(plus Avery) have been included in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
until 1000 PM. So far the storms that have developed in this area
have grown very quickly and several have developed large icy cores.

No major surprises in the new model guidance, with the center of
a large upper low moving slowly down across the Midwest/OH Valley
tonight and then over the Cumberland Plateau on Thursday. The trof
axis remains to our west the entire time, with spokes of vorticity
moving around the circulation. This will have a difficult time
pushing the surface front off to the east. Think most of the
convection will die off in the mid/late evening. Dry air will
attempt to filter in from the SW in the dry slot, which should allow
for some cooler temps in northeast GA and the wrn Upstate. However,
there are indications that low level moisture will remain high
across the wrn Piedmont, which could lead to some dense fog around
daybreak. Confidence way too low for any advisories for now.

On Thursday, the upper low is close enough to the mtns such that
more than one fairly strong short wave will pass overhead, along
with some upper divergence. Meanwhile, colder air aloft should
provide some buoyancy. Expect some low-topped convection to develop
in the afternoon over the mtns, so a chance probability will be
kept there. Meanwhile, will also hold onto a chance east of I-77
where the surface boundary will remain. What is interesting is the
lingering severe storm potential seen on the new Day 2 Outlook. The
drier air filtering in from the SW should keep the convection at
bay over northeast GA and most of Upstate SC. Will bump up high
temps a few degrees for Thursday afternoon on general principles.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Wed: Deep upper low remains centered over Kentucky
Thursday night into Friday, then gradually wobbles northward
through Saturday. Heights aloft will have already bottomed out
over our area during this period; upper lapse rates become quite
poor by daytime Friday. Though small precip chances linger over
the northern portion of our CWFA thru Fri mrng, the whole area
is left dry thereafter, with light southerly return flow around
Atlantic high pressure. Mins are expected to be around normal,
with max temps a tad above normal due to plentiful sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Wednesday...At the starting point of 00Z Sunday,
the cut off upper low is forecast to be over NE corner of Indiana.
Other than some cloudiness mainly over the NC Mountains, no sensible
weather for our area. The low will begin to move NE for the rest of
the weekend and open up to the upper westerlies as the low fills.
Our region will be under the influence of a high amplitude upper
ridge and surface high pressure. 500MB trough will be crossing the
West Coast Sunday and the Rockies Monday and Tuesday as our ridge
gets pinched east.

According to the 06Z GFS, Tropical system Matthew will be a powerful
hurricane making landfall on the NC coast Wednesday evening. This
track varies a little from day to day as yesterday the GFS had it
just a little farther east. Over the last 2 to 3 days this model has
been consistent in stating their would be some East Coast impact
from this system. The new 12Z GFS now has the track just slightly
farther east and still close enough to the western wall of
circulation for some affects to Outer Banks.  Still the timing for
passage of NC coast still Wed evening. The GFS has the wind from the
east for our area beginning Tuesday around the north end of the
circulation of Matthew.  The ECMWF is much slower with Matthew just
reaching the Bahamas at the end of the week. The end result for us
at this time is we will stay dry except for perhaps a few showers
late Wednesday north of CLT.

Temps a couple categories above normal Sunday through Tuesday then
Max Temps down near normal Wednesday due to passing Matthew.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT...cumulus field developing across the Piedmont with bases in
the 025-035 range. This could result in a temporary ceiling close to
the upper end of MVFR, but this will be left out of the TAF in favor
of keeping the TEMPO for thunderstorms. The latest CAM guidance has
thunderstorms developing nearby as early as 19Z and moving through
as late as 23Z, so this will be the time period covered by the
temporary restriction. Could have some lingering shower activity
into the early evening, then convective debris clouds overnight. The
actual cold front, as it were, does not appear to ever move across
the region, or at least there isn't much of a wind shift behind it.
In fact, the guidance has the winds coming back around to a more
southerly direction. The guidance hits the fog hard again in the
pre-dawn hours, with some guidance going down as low as VLIFR. Will
compromise and introduce another MVFR fog restriction starting at
11Z. This could develop earlier and could also be down in the LIFR
or worse range, but those details are left out for now. Any fog
should burn off quickly. New convection could blow up again across
metro CLT by midday Thursday, but this was left out for brevity.

Elsewhere...could be a few showers that develop near the other TAF
sites but coverage should be isolated, thus only a VCSH was
included. Drier air comes in this evening which should be enough to
keep clouds scattered. Over the mtns, looks like a good scenario for
valley fog in the pre-dawn hours, thus KAVL has a good chance to see
an IFR restriction, perhaps VLIFR by sunrise. KHKY has the next best
chance for seeing low stratus/fog based on its proximity to trapped
low level moisture near the front. Dry air is expected to wrap
around the mtns from the SW, so no fog is anticipated at the Upstate
TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR on Thursday after the fog burns off.
Showers are possible by early afternoon over the mtns, but this was
left out of KAVL for brevity.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will build in slowly behind the front
Thursday afternoon, which should bring VFR conditions in most places
through the end of the week, although some instability could lead to
showers over the NC part of the area on Thursday afternoon.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  91%     Med   75%     High  91%
KHKY       High 100%     High  90%     High  83%     High  96%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCZ033-035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-291930-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
328 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ048>050-053-065-SCZ007>009-011>014-019-291930-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
328 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>006-010-
291930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-
328 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

WIMBERLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCZ050-503>505-282030-
GREATER BURKE NC-BURKE MOUNTAINS NC-MITCHELL NC-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
344 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BURKE...
SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 344 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINVILLE FALLS...LAKE JAMES...LAKE JAMES STATE PARK...B.R.
PARKWAY-LITTLE SWITZERLAND TO LINVILLE...B.R. PARKWAY-CRAGGY TO
LITTLE SWITZERLAND...NORTH COVE...WOODLAWN...ASHFORD AND LITTLE
SWITZERLAND.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3576 8180 3574 8190 3577 8194 3572 8201
      3570 8211 3580 8216 3582 8213 3583 8214
      3592 8200 3591 8198 3593 8195 3594 8196
      3596 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 239DEG 15KT 3580 8204

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCZ503>505-282045-
GREATER BURKE NC-BURKE MOUNTAINS NC-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
414 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BURKE AND
NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 414 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPRUCE PINE...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF LAKE JAMES...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TABLE ROCK...LAKE JAMES...LAKE JAMES STATE PARK...NORTH COVE...
ASHFORD AND OAK HILL.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3595 8178 3593 8178 3592 8175 3588 8171
      3585 8164 3583 8162 3582 8160 3575 8191
      3577 8194 3575 8196 3587 8202 3587 8200
      3589 8198 3597 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 243DEG 23KT 3583 8193

CDG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
424 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HAIL             2 N KINGS CREEK         36.02N 81.40W
09/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTED QUARTER (1") SIZE HAIL  ON
            GRANDIN RD & LACKEY RD IN LENOIR. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

LEV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
425 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             3 WNW KINGS CREEK       36.01N 81.45W
09/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER (1") SIZE HAIL  ON
            BEAR RUN IN LENOIR.

&&

LEV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             2 NNW KINGS CREEK       36.02N 81.41W
09/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTED QUARTER (1") SIZE HAIL  ON
            SUGAR CREEK RD IN LENOIR.

&&

LEV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             2 NW KINGS CREEK        36.01N 81.44W
09/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED QUARTER (1") SIZE HAIL  ON
            HIGHLAND MEADOWS WAY IN LENOIR.

&&

LEV