Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
739 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level area of low pressure will moving from the
Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley tonight and Friday. This
system will combine with a low pressure system over the Mid
Atlantic region to produce several periods of showers and
thunderstorms tonight through Friday night. The low will move
northeast, away from the region, resulting in drier weather
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Wednesday...

Cleared portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488 roughly west of
a line from Lynchburg to Martinsville to Yadkinville.

Best instability resides east of this line, but especially over
central NC. Still seeing good shear values along and east of the
Blue Ridge. HRRR shows redevelopment this evening over the
foothills of NC north into the New River and Roanoke Valleys. Will
have to watch for isolated wind issues, but given loss of heating
threat should stay isolated.

Previous discussion from mid afternoon...

Closed upper low over Michigan will fill slightly and move south into
southern Indiana by Thursday morning. Strongest vorticity
advection reaches the central Appalachians late tonight. Cold pool
aloft also moves over the mountains late tonight and Thursday with
500 mb temperatures down to -20 in far southwest Virginia.
Diffluence aloft will also produce some lift with the central and
eastern Virginia within the right rear quadrant of the upper jet
overnight. With the abundant lift and moisture east of the Blue
Ridge, will be increasing probability of precipitation on Thursday.

A surface cold front with associated with the upper low will approach
the Appalachians Thursday morning. Models bring a chance of showers
into southwest Virginia with this feature by Thursday afternoon. By
late Thursday this front will merge with the main surface low over
Virginia.

Best instability and most favorable shear profiles are in the
piedmont this afternoon and tonight. In locations with heating the
convective available potential energy may reach 2500 J/KG this
afternoon. The enhanced low level winds will be along the
boundary north of a HSP to FVX line.

Have kept maximum temperatures below guidance on Thursday based on
the amount of rain and cloud cover expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

A closed upper low centered near SDF Thursday evening will stall
across the Ohio River Basin through Friday night. At the same time,
a series of disturbances, including complex frontal system will
interact with the deep atlantic moisture and pulse along the mid
Atlantic Seaboard.

As a result, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue around the low and along the boundary. Some of the
thunderstorms could be strong with gusty winds,hail and heavy
downpours Thursday evening into Thursday night. The swody2 has
placed much of the CWA in Marginal risk of severe with main threat
being hail and gusty wind. Convection is expected to diminish with
the loss of daytime heating and the subsequent instability axis
overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Low temperatures Thursday
night will range from the upper 40s in the mountains to the lower
60s in the Piedmont.

Considerable clouds with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue Friday. High temperatures Friday will remain
relatively cool with readings from the mid 60s in the Mountain to
the mid 70s in the Piedmont. Isolated to scattered showers will
continue Friday night. The Best chances for rain will occur across
the North. Low temperatures friday night will vary from the mid 40s
in the western Mountains to the upper 50s in the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Closed upper low centered near Saturday morning will lift
northeast and reach the St. Lawrence river valley by Sunday night.
Then, the low center will open up and weaken as it moves across
New England Monday and moves into the Atlantic ocean on Tuesday.

The exact evolution of the large scale patterns will affect the
eventual track of what is forecasted by NHC to be Hurricane Matthew.
The storm may threaten the southeast coast next week. This is being
monitored by the NHC and WPC.

For much of the extended ISC grids leaned towards WPC which was a
blend of the 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENS MEAN. Temperatures will
start cooler for Saturday with continued improvement as
precip/cloudcover comes to an end, then temperatures begin to
moderate Sunday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Wednesday...

Main threat of tsra will be close to Danville this evening with
VCSH across LYH/ROA/BCB. High-res models favor more shower
coverage as far west as BCB, but for now will keep it VCSH.

As an upper low moves south of the Great Lakes tonight and
Thursday...a cold front will approach the Appalachians from the
west. This front will merge with a stationary low pressure system
over Virginia on Thursday.

Ceilings and vsbys will at times drop to IFR but most will be MVFR
to VFR overnight, with best chance of VFR this evening in BLF/LWB.

Question is how much fog forms with rain earlier today and any
clearing potentially leading for IFR or lower conditions.
Confidence at this time is high enough of IFR fog, otherwise MVFR
or higher.

Thursday will be a day of scattered to numerous coverage of shower
and storms, so expect any lower cigs to rise to MVFR to VFR by
midday.

Extended aviation discussion...

A deep upper low will remain over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
through Friday night. This will keep variable clouds, MVFR cigs,
and periods of -SHRA across the region through much of the period.
Should finally see VFR return during Saturday and continue Monday
as the upper low lifts north and weak high pressure builds in.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for VAZ035-
     044>047-058-059.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
728 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ015>017-022>024-032>034-043-292330-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-
728 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW STORMS THURSDAY COULD BRING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ035-292330-
AMHERST-
728 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS THURSDAY COULD BRING LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-292330-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
728 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ044>047-058-059-292330-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
728 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS THURSDAY COULD BRING LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-292330-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-
728 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW STORMS THURSDAY COULD BRING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
810 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

VAZ047-290045-
BUCKINGHAM-
810 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 809 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NEW CANTON...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW CANTON...
AND GOLD HILL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3764 7825 3752 7833 3775 7849 3776 7847
      3774 7842 3773 7836 3772 7834 3771 7830
      3769 7826 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 253DEG 20KT 3768 7832

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
827 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N BOONSBORO           37.49N  79.26W
09/28/2016                   BEDFORD            VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON HOLCOMB ROCK ROAD

0619 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW LYNCHBURG CITY     37.43N  79.17W
09/28/2016                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER LINE DOWN ON RIVERMONT AVENUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1601675
EVENT NUMBER RNK1601676

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
841 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCZ003-004-VAZ014-016-017-019-020-022>024-032>035-043>045-290115-
STOKES-SURRY-MONTGOMERY-BATH-FRANKLIN-AMHERST-FLOYD-ROCKBRIDGE-HENRY-
BEDFORD-PATRICK-ALLEGHANY-PITTSYLVANIA-CARROLL-CAMPBELL-BOTETOURT-
ROANOKE-
841 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SURRY
COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHWESTERN STOKES COUNTY
IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AMHERST COUNTY IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHEASTERN BATH AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... WESTERN HENRY
COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NORTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA...BOTETOURT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHEASTERN
CARROLL COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... EAST CENTRAL ALLEGHANY
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...PATRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHWESTERN
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...ROANOKE...AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE CITY OF
LEXINGTON...THE CITY OF SALEM...THE CITY OF ROANOKE...THE CITY OF
BUENA VISTA...THE NORTHWESTERN CITY OF MARTINSVILLE AND THE CITY OF
LYNCHBURG THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 836 PM EDT...NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM
NORTHERN STOKES COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA TO NORTHERN ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY
IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SOME CITIES THAT WILL BE IMPACTED WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
PEA TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH INCLUDE
STUART...ROCKY
MOUNT...ROANOKE...LYNCHBURG...TROUTVILLE...FINCASTLE...AND
LEXINGTON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...VMI...LIBERTY
UNIVERSITY...THE SALEM FAIRGROUNDS...THE NATIONAL D DAY
MEMORIAL...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...AND THE ROANOKE REGIONAL AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 3808 7948 3789 7915 3781 7917 3781 7914
      3778 7907 3772 7907 3770 7899 3754 7890
      3632 8027 3653 8071 3813 7949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 249DEG 29KT 3719 7986

RAB

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