Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Raleigh, NC

657 
WWUS52 KRAH 282259
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
659 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCC077-145-282330-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-160928T2330Z/
PERSON NC-GRANVILLE NC-
659 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR PERSON AND NORTHWESTERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES...

AT 653 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ROXBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS
REPORTED IN HURDLE MILLS VICINITY AT 653 PM.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROXBORO...BUSHY FORK...MORIAH...BEREA...SURL AND MAYO RESERVOIR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RALEIGH.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3654 7866 3625 7863 3624 7880 3624 7910
      3642 7907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 233DEG 15KT 3631 7903 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

WSS

290 
WWUS52 KRAH 282309
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
709 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCC077-145-282330-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-160928T2330Z/
PERSON NC-GRANVILLE NC-
709 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PERSON AND NORTHWESTERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES...

AT 709 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ROXBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORIAH...BEREA...SURL AND MAYO RESERVOIR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RALEIGH.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3654 7866 3625 7863 3624 7880 3624 7898
      3645 7895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 229DEG 24KT 3637 7892 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

WSS

950 
WWUS52 KRAH 282320
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCC145-282328-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-160928T2330Z/
PERSON NC-
720 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PERSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3654 7866 3641 7865 3640 7877 3641 7880
      3649 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 222DEG 37KT 3649 7874 

$$

NCC077-282330-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-160928T2330Z/
GRANVILLE NC-
720 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GRANVILLE COUNTY...

AT 718 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VIRGILINA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN GRANVILLE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RALEIGH.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3654 7866 3641 7865 3640 7877 3641 7880
      3649 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 222DEG 37KT 3649 7874 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

WSS

190 
WWUS52 KRAH 282328
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
728 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCC077-282338-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-160928T2330Z/
GRANVILLE NC-
728 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GRANVILLE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3654 7866 3641 7865 3640 7877 3641 7880
      3649 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 259DEG 23KT 3649 7874 

$$

WSS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent upper level low over the Great Lakes will drift southward
through the Ohio valley tonight, stall over the Cumberland
Plateau in eastern Tennessee and Kentucky on Thursday and Friday,
then retrograde north through the Ohio valley and lower Great
Lakes this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

...Severe storms and flash flooding possible this evening...

Convective initiation is underway in two main areas: 1) along a
differential heating boundary over the northwest Piedmont, just
downstream of the synoptic front, and 2) an axis of weak mass
convergence near I-95. MLCAPE has risen to around 2000 j/kg
amidst good diabatic heating, and with mid level flow increasing
to around 40kt ahead of the upper low currently dropping toward
the Tenn Valley, effective bulk shear has increased to 40-45kt
north of roughly Highway 64. These bands may not move very much
given system parallel deep layer flow, which will likely lead to
training of cells and a flash flood threat. Not issuing a Flash
Flood Watch after coordination with neighboring offices, but the
threat of flash flood should not be ignored this evening and
tonight. Supercells will be possible within the bands, more so
toward the VA border where shear is better, and a tornado threat
may unfold this evening as low-level winds increase/back and
curved hodographs elongate in response to the approaching upper
low.

Another band of convection (maybe not as intense) should develop
tonight as stronger height falls finally arrive and deep forcing
is better. There has been relatively good agreement among the
large scale models and the ensemble of CAMs of this in the
vicinity of US-1 in the 10pm to 3am time frame. Expect lows will
be in the upper 60s to around 70 given no movement of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Wednesday...

Additional showers and storms with training moderate to heavy
rain remains likely over Central NC Thu, with a gradual shift to
the ENE on Fri.

The powerful mid level low will continue to sit and spin over KY on
Thu before drifting/wobbling slightly northward to IN on Fri, with
lobes of DPVA sweeping through western and central NC, along/atop
the very slow-moving north-south oriented cold/occluded surface
frontal zone. PW values remain elevated (over 1.5") over all but the
far west Thu, shifting to east of I-95 Fri, beneath nearly
continuous bands of pronounced upper divergence. The WRF-ARW/NMM
both start the day Thu with a band of convection bisecting the
forecast area, drifting slowly eastward through the far eastern
Piedmont and Coastal Plain through Fri, filling in with better
coverage with time, with a cell motion that presents a threat for
training and resultant localized flooding. Will retain, with minor
tweaks, the overall pattern of the earlier forecast, with lower
chance pops west and high pops in the central/eastern CWA Thu,
trending lower WSW to ENE through Fri but remaining high in the far
eastern/NE forecast area Fri, tapering off further Fri night.

Temps both days will be held down by clouds/precip in the east and
by lowering post-front thicknesses in the western CWA. Highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s Thu and in the mid 70s to lower 80s Fri,
still slightly above seasonal normals. Lows 60-68 Thu night and 54-
65 Fri night. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 320 PM Wednesday...

A few showers are likely to linger Sat into Sun in the eastern CWA,
along and east of the frontal zone, but otherwise this period
appears mostly dry. The large mid-upper low centered over IN early
Sat will drift across lower MI and slowly fill through Sun before
being drawn across the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast states by a
shortwave trough rotating around a northern Atlantic polar vortex.
This, in conjunction with a large longwave trough shifting onto the
West Coast and over the western CONUS, will gradually build ridging
over the eastern CONUS heading into early next week. The surface
front over the East will continue to ease eastward and wash out with
a weakening low level wind field fostering frontolysis. A few mainly
afternoon showers are possible along this diffuse frontal zone over
the far eastern counties of NC early next week, but the PW will be
quite low elsewhere with a lack of instability, and will keep the
forecast mostly dry. Temps should hold a bit above normal through
the period, following thickness trends, with highs mostly in the
upper 70s and lower 80s, and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Uncertainty grows during the middle of next week, with a lot of
questions regarding the fate of what is now Tropical Storm Matthew,
located north of Venezuela this afternoon. However, at this time, it
appears that it will still be far from NC through Wed. Check with
the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Matthew. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Wednesday...

Scattered of morning stratus has yielded VFR most everywhere, with
MVFR ceilings holding on in at INT and GSO.  Daytime heating and an
approaching deep upper low will trigger storms that should become
more numerous with time.  These will be scattered this afternoon and
early evening,but may become focused in a line tonight.  Some of the
storms may be strong with very heavy rain, and thus LIFR  conditions
are possible.  Some IFR ceilings should develop once the main area
of showers moves east, primarily around GSO/INT/RDU, tough additional
showers will still be possible throughout the night.

Typical daytime improvement in ceilings is expected Thursday
morning, though with the the frontal zone still over the region and
the upper low settling over the Tenn Valley, another round of strong
storms is expected Thursday afternoon.

Outlook: Drier air is finally expected to filter into the region on
Friday, leading to improved aviation conditions through the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...BS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
338 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-291000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
338 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
609 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             4 SE MCLEANSVILLE       36.06N 79.62W
09/28/2016  E1.00 INCH       GUILFORD           NC   PUBLIC

            1 INCB HAIL ON I-40 AT MILE MARKER 134. .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
610 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             3 S DUNN                35.27N 78.61W
09/28/2016  E1.00 INCH       HARNETT            NC   PUBLIC

            .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
611 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             4 NW WADE               35.20N 78.78W
09/28/2016  U1.00 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NC   PUBLIC

            .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
618 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCZ040-282315-
CHATHAM  NC-
618 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

 ...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL CHATHAM COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 617 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF PITTSBORO
TO NEAR GOLDSTON. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PITTSBORO...GOLDSTON...HARPERS CROSSROADS...JORDAN LAKE...
FEARRINGTON AND BYNUM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3586 7908 3586 7896 3562 7911 3563 7912
      3562 7914 3561 7915 3554 7935 3553 7955
      3577 7930 3584 7927 3585 7924 3586 7925
      3588 7925
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 230DEG 16KT 3576 7930 3561 7943

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
625 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             5 WSW ROXBORO           36.39N 79.06W
09/28/2016  U1.50 INCH       PERSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR
            ROXBORO.

&&

SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
627 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCZ022-282300-
GUILFORD  NC-
627 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN GUILFORD
COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 626 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GREENSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENSBORO...MCLEANSVILLE...GIBSONVILLE...PLEASANT GARDEN...
FOREST OAKS AND LAKE GUILFORD MACKINTOSH MARINA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3624 7953 3602 7954 3593 7979 3598 7987
      3610 7986 3624 7958
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 241DEG 24KT 3605 7976

26