Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447

August 16, 20165 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 16, 2016, 3:20 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 16, 2016, 3:20 PM EDT (19:20 UTC)
Expired
Aug 16, 2016, 6:56 PM EDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 60 counties

New Castle County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Union County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Loudoun County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 16, 3:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Lycoming, Sullivan65 min
Aug 16, 3:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCumberland, Dauphin, Perry45 min
Aug 16, 3:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPSullivan46 min
Aug 16, 3:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll50 min
Aug 16, 3:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPDauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York64 min
Aug 16, 4:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Chester, Montgomery52 min
Aug 16, 4:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Montour, Northumberland, Schuylkill62 min
Aug 16, 4:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster, York70 min
Aug 16, 4:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Warren35 min
Aug 16, 4:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford46 min
Aug 16, 5:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery26 min
Aug 16, 5:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXHarford46 min
Aug 16, 5:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Lehigh, Northampton41 min
Aug 16, 5:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster34 min
Aug 16, 5:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICecil38 min
Aug 16, 5:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXHarford24 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-08-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 364 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-08-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 117 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
364 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-175 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
773 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
117 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 16, 4:55 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNew Castle95 min
Aug 16, 1:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's and 2 more2 hr
Aug 16, 6:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Garrett2 hr
Aug 16, 2:57 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Butler, Crawford, Erie, Lawrence, Mercer and 2 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2016Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.