Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS State College, PA

591 
WWUS51 KCTP 162159
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
559 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

PAC071-162200-
/O.EXP.KCTP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-160816T2200Z/
LANCASTER PA-
559 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LANCASTER COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM EDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND WILL SOON EXIT THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3997 7634 4022 7600 4014 7587 4011 7594
      4004 7593 3996 7599 3987 7599 3988 7600
      3985 7602 3983 7602 3983 7604 3976 7606
      3976 7608 3973 7610 3974 7612 3973 7612
      3972 7617 3973 7617
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 239DEG 31KT 3994 7619 

$$

RXR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
357 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop down through the state tonight and
stall along the Maryland border. However, the temperatures will
not become all that much cooler. Warm and humid weather will
continue with just isolated storms possible each afternoon into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Line of storms along a weak advance trough making occasional
gusts into/near severe. This line is making it into a very much
less stable environment and will likely ramp up even stronger.
New SVR watch box will be chopped off quickly as the line is
moving quickly. This first line should be off to the east around 5
pm. But, the focus will then shift to the NW where some speckles
continue to develop. Those cells are flying along and the driving
vort max seems to be over KCLE right now. So, we may not have too
long of a time for severe threat in the NW, either. Main threat in
both areas is wind damage.

The real cold front - if it can be termed "real" - will be
dropping down into the NW co.s around sunset, and continue moving
se - reaching IPT-UNV by 04z-05z. The front will likely then slog
to a halt as it nears the MD border. The lack of heating and the
larger-scale subsidence will be effective at diminishing the
coverage and intensity of the storms along and south of the front.
Showers will probably linger over the Laurels thru the night.

It will be muggy overnight with lots of places receiving rainfall
today. The winds will get lighter from the west but stay up a
little, so fog not quite as possible as lower clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The front will still be nearby on Wed. SW flow into the Laurels
will probably keep showers going into the morning. Then, heating
may renew the convection in the afternoon if it does die off in
the morning. Will keep pops all along the srn border for the aftn.
Slightly drier air over the northern tier may make it feel a
little better than the recent 70+ dewpoints. Maxes will still be
in the 80-85F range, though.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The basic grids were nudged using the National Blend of Models
(NBM) and superblend of models. This should provide relatively
consistent grids.

The GEFS and NAEFES are forecasting a gradual pattern change. The
key changes include the complete erosion of the subtropical ridge
along and off the East Coast and the evolution of a trough in the
central United States. Thus Wednesday night into Thursday the 500
mb flow becomes more westerly. This flow is forecast to push the
plume of high precipitable water (PW) air to our south leaving a
boundary to our south and east. Lingering showers should be mainly
closer to this boundary. With lower PW our diurnal POPS should
drop considerably.

This plume of high PW does not come back. Thus closer to normal
temperatures through the column and lower PW should provide cooler
nights, lower POPS, and near normal high temperatures.

The developing trough to our west this weekend and the surge of
cold air to our west will pull warm air back into our region by
the weekend. We should see another surge of high PW air, albeit
not as tropical, ahead of this system. Thus chance showers will
slowly increase as will overnight lows Friday into Sunday.

At this time the ensemble forecast systems (EFS) show the frontal
system Sunday pushing through from west to east with a nice
north- south front for a change. This would increase the chance of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday. If correct early next week could
see considerably drier air move into our region along with
relatively cooler air. The EFS clearly want to end this regime of
high temperatures and high moisture. The GEFS forecasts slightly
below normal PW values by Tuesday next week and near to slightly
below normal 850 mb temperatures. That would be a refreshing
change.

Not surprisingly the GEFS maximum QPF time and the NBM maximum QPF
time in our long range forecasts is SUNDAY and possibly early
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Line of storms is now east of IPT, and rolling past MDT. Only LNS
left to see any thunder from that line. New convection is
developing over the NW, and those cells are moving very quickly,
but have not organized in any fashion quite yet. The cold
front/wind shift will slide through BFD around 00z, and
effectively end the threat for TSRA there.

Outlook...

Thu...Patchy am fog possible. Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

Fri...No Sig Wx expected.

Sat-Sun...Sct/isold TSRA mainly W, mainly PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ057-059-065-
066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Grumm
AVIATION...Dangelo

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-057-059-063>065-172130-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
523 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ058-066-172130-
SCHUYLKILL-LANCASTER-
523 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
342 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW CHAMBERSBURG       39.98N  77.72W
08/16/2016                   FRANKLIN           PA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREE AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN PARTIALLY BLOCKING ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601793

MACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
345 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWTON HAMILTON         40.39N  77.84W
08/16/2016                   MIFFLIN            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN TWO LOCATIONS.

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW CHAMBERSBURG       39.98N  77.72W
08/16/2016                   FRANKLIN           PA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREE AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN PARTIALLY BLOCKING ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601792 CTP1601793

MACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
417 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYTOWN                 40.08N  76.58W
08/16/2016                   LANCASTER          PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON MOBILE HOME. NO ONE INJURED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601794

MACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
419 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E MAYTOWN             40.08N  76.54W
08/16/2016                   LANCASTER          PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON BUILDING. PEOPLE TRAPPED BY BLOCKED
            EXITS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601795

MACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
420 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWTON HAMILTON         40.39N  77.84W
08/16/2016                   MIFFLIN            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN TWO LOCATIONS.

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW CHAMBERSBURG       39.98N  77.72W
08/16/2016                   FRANKLIN           PA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREE AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN PARTIALLY BLOCKING ROADWAY.

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYTOWN                 40.08N  76.58W
08/16/2016                   LANCASTER          PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON MOBILE HOME. NO ONE INJURED.

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E MAYTOWN             40.08N  76.54W
08/16/2016                   LANCASTER          PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON BUILDING. PEOPLE TRAPPED BY BLOCKED
            EXITS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601792 CTP1601793 CTP1601794 CTP1601795

MACH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
427 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

PAZ065-162100-
YORK PA-
427 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF YORK COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

AT 426 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NEW FREEDOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NEW FREEDOM...RAILROAD AND GLEN ROCK AROUND 430 PM EDT.
  SHREWSBURY AROUND 435 PM EDT.
  STEWARTSTOWN AROUND 440 PM EDT.
  CROSS ROADS AROUND 445 PM EDT.
  BROGUE AROUND 455 PM EDT.
  SUNNYBURN AROUND 500 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE FAWN GROVE...FELTON...
WINTERSTOWN...SUSQUEHANNA TRAILS AND AIRVILLE.

LAT...LON 3992 7649 3974 7625 3972 7633 3972 7686
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 245DEG 31KT 3972 7674

DANGELO