Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS State College, PA

009 
WWUS51 KCTP 161943
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

PAC067-109-119-162000-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-160816T2000Z/
SNYDER PA-UNION PA-JUNIATA PA-
343 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR SNYDER...SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA COUNTIES...

AT 343 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
KREAMER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEWISBURG...MIFFLINBURG...SELINSGROVE...FREMONT...PAXTONVILLE...
MIDDLEBURG...KREAMER...KRATZERVILLE...MEISERVILLE...WINFIELD...
HUMMELS WHARF...VICKSBURG...MOUNT PLEASANT MILLS...LINNTOWN...
PENNS CREEK...PORT TREVORTON...TYRONE...SHAMOKIN DAM...
RICHFIELD AND NEW BERLIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4103 7690 4099 7687 4097 7688 4092 7686
      4087 7680 4080 7685 4072 7685 4069 7687
      4063 7695 4060 7702 4059 7711 4089 7711
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 237DEG 31KT 4080 7698 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RXR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
217 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and humid weather pattern continues with daily
chances for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some
storms may be strong to severe Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
So far the temps have not gotten hot enough to allow the tiny
showers in far SWrn PA to grow much at all. However,
destablization is anticipated shortly with plenty of sun breaking
thru the former gloominess, and mdt-tcu now visible in Somerset
Co. Will keep the idea of showers developing very soon and moving
east. Flooding worries may be lower than thought previously since
these cells are moving along nicely. FFGs in the 2-4 inch range
over most of the CWA, only closer to 1.5 in a few spots over the
Ohio basins.

Prev...
Latest CAMS have a consistent idea that convection should be
flaring up with a trough rolling thru ern OH attm. This seems
reasonable - only it may be too stable by the time it gets to the
local area. Will trend the forecast to more of an early shot/line
of showers/storms - moving thru JST in 2-3 hrs and UNV about 18z
with similar timing elsewhere. Temps may have a tough time
getting to fcst nums if this line materializes. Will leave the
heat advy in place due to uncertainty of showers/timing and the
high dewpoints already in place.

Prev...
Two areas of showers/brief downpours will impact the north-central
1/3 of the CWA through 8am. The HRRR has been doing a decent job
tracking the showers which should exit the CWA by 14z. The main
focus in the near term period will be severe thunderstorm risk
this afternoon/evening.

A surface low will slowly deepen across the Lower Great lakes with
attendant warm/cold fronts extending across NY and back through
the OH Valley. Central PA will reside within the warm sector
characterized by moderate surface-based instability and high
PWATs but poor mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing for lift.
Stronger deep-layer shear/500mb flow arrives late in the day as
the cold front reaches northwest PA. The available 16/00z CAM
guidance seems to be suggesting the potential for semi-discrete
multicell thunderstorms with the primary threat being strong to
locally damaging winds given steepening low level lapse rates.
The high moisture content airmass will also support heavy rainfall
rates, but storm motions should be progressive. That said, some
places may quickly pick up 1-2" which could pose localized runoff
issues especially in urban/poor drainage areas. WPC has kept the
area in MRGL risk for excessive rainfall. Lastly, HX values should
reach the low 100s in the Harrisburg/York/Lancaster metro areas
and therefore issued a heat advisory 16-23z. Scattered showers
along the Allegheny front around 00-03z should gradually fade
to the east of the higher terrain as low-level flow shifts more
to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
The best chances for rain should shift southward through midweek
as axis of anomalous PWs sinks south of the Mason Dixon line. Day
2 /Wed/ max POPs were focused from southwest/south-central PA
SWWD along the Appalachians which is a fairly consistent signal
in the 00z model QPFs. Day 3 /Thu/ POPs are maximized along the
Allegheny spine were terrain-induced lift should help fuel
isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

The basic grids were nudged using the National Blend of Models
(NBM) and superblend of models. This should provide relatively
consistent grids.

The GEFS and NAEFES are forecasting a gradual pattern change. The
key changes include the complete erosion of the subtropical ridge
along and off the East Coast and the evolution of a trough in the
central United States. Thus Wednesday night into Thursday the 500
mb flow becomes more westerly. This flow is forecast to push the
plume of high precipitable water (PW) air to our south leaving a
boundary to our south and east. Lingering showers should be mainly
closer to this boundary. With lower PW our diurnal POPS should
drop considerably.

This plume of high PW does not come back. Thus closer to normal
temperatures through the column and lower PW should provide cooler
nights, lower POPS, and near normal high temperatures.

The developing trough to our west this weekend and the surge of
cold air to our west will pull warm air back into our region by
the weekend. We should see another surge of high PW air, albeit
not as tropical, ahead of this system. Thus chance showers will
slowly increase as will overnight lows Friday into Sunday.

At this time the ensemble forecast systems (EFS) show the frontal
system Sunday pushing through from west to east with a nice
north- south front for a change. This would increase the chance of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday. If correct early next week could
see considerably drier air move into our region along with
relatively cooler air. The EFS clearly want to end this regime of
high temperatures and high moisture. The GEFS forecasts slightly
below normal PW values by Tuesday next week and near to slightly
below normal 850 mb temperatures. That would be a refreshing
change.

Not surprisingly the GEFS maximum QPF time and the NBM maximum QPF
time in our long range forecasts is SUNDAY and possibly early
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Timing for lower clouds going away is right on time as mixing is
occurring. Have allowed for a period of showers possible in the
vcty of JST-AOO-UNV before 18z, and MDT-LNS generally between
18z-20z with the passage of a trough visible over SWrn PA at 14z.

Most of the convection should still be after 21z starting in the
NW about then and sliding to the SE.

Prev...
Any fog or lower cigs should lift arnd or shortly after 13Z, as
diurnal heating develops and mixing occurs within deepening
boundary layer. Widespread VFR conds expected from late Tues
morning thru Tue evening. However, SCT TSRA are expected to
develop ahead of an approaching cold front during the aftn and
evening, primarily over the central and northwest mountains. A
brief late day vis reduction could accompany these storms.

Outlook...

Wed...Am low cigs possible w mtns. Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

Thu...Patchy am fog possible. Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

Fri-Sat...No Sig Wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR PAZ057-059-065-
066.

&&

Synopsis...Steinbugl
Near Term...Dangelo/Steinbugl
Short Term...Steinbugl
Long Term...Grumm
Aviation...Dangelo/Ceru

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
170745-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
335 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ057-059-065-066-170745-
DAUPHIN-LEBANON-YORK-LANCASTER-
335 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ028-036-049>053-056-058-063-064-170745-
JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
SCHUYLKILL-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-
335 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

PAZ026-034>036-161815-
BEDFORD PA-FULTON PA-HUNTINGDON PA-FRANKLIN PA-
133 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 132 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW ENTERPRISE TO NEAR WARFORDSBURG TO NEAR
GREENWOOD. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BREEZEWOOD...GREENCASTLE...BIG COVE TANNERY...WELLS TANNERY...
WATERFALL...DUDLEY...EVERETT...SALUVIA...UPPER STRASBURG...
FORT LITTLETON...MARION...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...NEEDMORE...
ROCKHILL FURNACE...HARRISONVILLE...TROUGH CREEK STATE PARK...
SHY BEAVER...MCCONNELLSBURG...WILLOW HILL AND RAYSTOWN DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7823 4012 7845 4051 7792 4044 7788
      4040 7791 4039 7787 4037 7786 4037 7784
      4006 7767 3972 7772
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 233DEG 27KT 4010 7835 3979 7816 3947 7821

CR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

PAZ026-028-035-036-056-063-064-161900-
CUMBERLAND PA-JUNIATA PA-FULTON PA-HUNTINGDON PA-ADAMS PA-
FRANKLIN PA-PERRY PA-
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ADAMS...FRANKLIN...
FULTON...CUMBERLAND...JUNIATA...HUNTINGDON...AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL
300 PM EDT...

AT 204 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WATERFALL TO NEAR CHARLES TOWN. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHAMBERSBURG...WAYNESBORO...SHIPPENSBURG...GREENCASTLE...
FAYETTEVILLE...BIG SPRING STATE PARK...PERULACK...WAYNE HEIGHTS...
MCCONNELLSBURG...WILLOW HILL...FORT LOUDON...EAST WATERFORD...
ROXBURY...ROUZERVILLE...GUILFORD...DOYLESBURG...FANNETTSBURG...
MERCERSBURG...HONEY GROVE AND SPRUCE HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7804 4016 7804 4052 7743 3972 7740
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 220DEG 31KT 4015 7798 3925 7798

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
236 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

PAZ041-046-161915-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-
236 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LYCOMING COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM EDT...

AT 235 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ENGLISH CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTOURSVILLE...WILLIAMSPORT...BARBOURS...COGAN STATION...
LOYALSOCKVILLE...TROUT RUN...SALLADASBURG...GARDEN VIEW...
JERSEY SHORE...LITTLE LEAGUE WORLD SERIES COMPLEX...
WILLIAMSPORT AIRPORT AND SOUTH WILLIAMSPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4154 7680 4144 7676 4126 7679 4120 7730
      4122 7732 4122 7735 4123 7736 4139 7727
      4155 7680
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 230DEG 15KT 4142 7720

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

PAZ027-028-036-049-050-056-057-063>065-162000-
UNION PA-DAUPHIN PA-MIFFLIN PA-CUMBERLAND PA-JUNIATA PA-SNYDER PA-
ADAMS PA-YORK PA-FRANKLIN PA-PERRY PA-
256 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ADAMS...FRANKLIN...
YORK...CUMBERLAND...SNYDER...DAUPHIN...UNION...JUNIATA...MIFFLIN...
AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 256 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALFARATA TO NEAR WALNUT BOTTOM TO NEAR
CARROLL VALLEY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
TORRENTIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEIGELSTOWN...YORK...CARLISLE...NEW CUMBERLAND...HARRISBURG...
PARKVILLE...ENOLA...CAMP HILL...SHIPPENSBURG...HANOVER...
LINGLESTOWN...GETTYSBURG...LEMOYNE...LEWISTOWN...MECHANICSBURG...
LOWER ALLEN...STEELTON...COLONIAL PARK...SPRY AND PROGRESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4012 7758 4074 7762 4096 7688 4088 7680
      4080 7685 4071 7686 4063 7695 4061 7692
      4064 7678 4025 7675 3972 7665 3972 7750
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 257DEG 27KT 4063 7747 4013 7748 3969 7740

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWTON HAMILTON         40.39N  77.84W
08/16/2016                   MIFFLIN            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN TWO LOCATIONS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601792

EVANEGO