Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404

July 21, 201613 counties in Michigan; 18 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 21, 2016, 5:31 AM EDT for 13 counties in Michigan; 18 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 21, 2016, 5:31 AM EDT (09:31 UTC)
Expired
Jul 21, 2016, 11:26 AM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 31 counties

Alger County, MI, Baraga County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Gogebic County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Iron County, MI, Keweenaw County, MI, Luce County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Ontonagon County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Door County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

18 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 21, 5:38 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTGogebic, Ontonagon52 min
Jul 21, 6:20 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBVilas61 min
Jul 21, 6:22 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTGogebic, Ontonagon38 min
Jul 21, 6:31 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXClark, Taylor74 min
Jul 21, 6:46 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTBaraga, Houghton, Iron59 min
Jul 21, 7:14 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTMarquette76 min
Jul 21, 7:26 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTKeweenaw49 min
Jul 21, 7:40 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTDickinson65 min
Jul 21, 7:43 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBLincoln, Marathon24 min
Jul 21, 7:46 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBFlorence, Forest, Langlade, Oneida40 min
Jul 21, 7:54 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBMarinette85 min
Jul 21, 7:59 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBMenominee, Oconto, Shawano91 min
Jul 21, 8:53 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBBrown, Outagamie72 min
Jul 21, 8:55 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBDoor65 min
Jul 21, 9:01 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBWaushara52 min
Jul 21, 9:12 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBKewaunee63 min
Jul 21, 9:16 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBCalumet, Winnebago74 min
Jul 21, 9:39 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBManitowoc81 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2016-07-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 788 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2016-07-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 44 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
788 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-127 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1402 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
50 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

261 
WWUS20 KWNS 210929
SEL4  
SPC WW 210929
MIZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-211600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  UPPER MICHIGAN
  NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN
  LAKE MICHIGAN
  LAKE SUPERIOR

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 430 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
    MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A BOWING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SPAWNING DAMAGING WINDS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH
EARLY-MID MORNING.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF
IRONWOOD MICHIGAN TO 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ESCANABA
MICHIGAN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 29045.


...EDWARDS

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 21, 4:54 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw and 2 more2 hr
Jul 21, 7:39 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Houghton, Iron and 3 more2 hr
Jul 21, 9:28 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie and 42 more2 hr
Jul 21, 9:45 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie and 43 more7 hr
Jul 21, 12:19 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcona, Alpena, Arenac, Bay, Cheboygan, Clare and 30 more116 min
Jul 21, 2:23 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBranch, Calhoun, Cass, Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee and 5 more2 hr
Jul 21, 1:32 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshland, Barron, Bayfield, Burnett, Chippewa, Douglas and 8 more6 hr
Jul 21, 3:30 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Washburn2 hr
Jul 21, 4:20 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Buffalo, Columbia, Eau Claire, Iowa, Jackson and 9 more115 min
Jul 21, 5:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCColumbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 13 more5 hr
Jul 21, 6:42 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 12 more93 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2016Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.