Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 21, 2016, 5:31 AM EDT for 13 counties in Michigan; 18 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 21, 2016, 5:31 AM EDT (09:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 21, 2016, 11:26 AM EDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 31 counties
Alger County, MI, Baraga County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Gogebic County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Iron County, MI, Keweenaw County, MI, Luce County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Ontonagon County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Door County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI
The radar
The Marquette radar (KMQT), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
18 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 5:38 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Gogebic, Ontonagon | 52 min |
| Jul 21, 6:20 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Vilas | 61 min |
| Jul 21, 6:22 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Gogebic, Ontonagon | 38 min |
| Jul 21, 6:31 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ARX | Clark, Taylor | 74 min |
| Jul 21, 6:46 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Baraga, Houghton, Iron | 59 min |
| Jul 21, 7:14 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Marquette | 76 min |
| Jul 21, 7:26 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Keweenaw | 49 min |
| Jul 21, 7:40 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MQT | Dickinson | 65 min |
| Jul 21, 7:43 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Lincoln, Marathon | 24 min |
| Jul 21, 7:46 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Florence, Forest, Langlade, Oneida | 40 min |
| Jul 21, 7:54 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Marinette | 85 min |
| Jul 21, 7:59 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Menominee, Oconto, Shawano | 91 min |
| Jul 21, 8:53 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Brown, Outagamie | 72 min |
| Jul 21, 8:55 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Door | 65 min |
| Jul 21, 9:01 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Waushara | 52 min |
| Jul 21, 9:12 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Kewaunee | 63 min |
| Jul 21, 9:16 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Calumet, Winnebago | 74 min |
| Jul 21, 9:39 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Manitowoc | 81 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 788 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -127 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1402 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 50 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.6
The text
As transmitted.
261
WWUS20 KWNS 210929
SEL4
SPC WW 210929
MIZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-211600-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
UPPER MICHIGAN
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 430 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A BOWING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SPAWNING DAMAGING WINDS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH
EARLY-MID MORNING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF
IRONWOOD MICHIGAN TO 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ESCANABA
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 29045.
...EDWARDSSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 4:54 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 7:39 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Houghton, Iron and 3 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 9:28 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie and 42 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 9:45 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie and 43 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 21, 12:19 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Arenac, Bay, Cheboygan, Clare and 30 more | 116 min |
| Jul 21, 2:23 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 1:32 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashland, Barron, Bayfield, Burnett, Chippewa, Douglas and 8 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 21, 3:30 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Washburn | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 4:20 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Buffalo, Columbia, Eau Claire, Iowa, Jackson and 9 more | 115 min |
| Jul 21, 5:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 13 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 21, 6:42 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 12 more | 93 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2016Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.