Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1349
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 21, 2016, 2:23 PM EDT for 19 counties in Indiana; 11 counties in Michigan; 15 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 21, 2016, 2:23 PM EDT (18:23 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 21, 2016, 4:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 45 counties
Allen County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Lake County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Noble County, IN, Porter County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Defiance County, OH, Erie County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Henry County, OH, Huron County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH
The radar
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 690 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -74 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1014 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 10 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 26 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
293
ACUS11 KWNS 211824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211823
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-212030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN IL...PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI...NRN
INDIANA...NWRN OH...ADJACENT LE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211823Z - 212030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE
HAIL. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MI/NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH SEVERAL CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE
IN THE VICINITY. DOWNSTREAM...STRONG HEATING OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS YIELDED MODERATE-STRONG SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA
REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...AND THE LATEST KIWX VWP INDICATES AROUND 20
KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
A PRONOUNCED COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN
UNCAPPED AIR MASS AS INDICATED BY A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED GIVEN CONCERNS
ABOUT THE OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..BUNTING/HART.. 07/21/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
LAT...LON 40778461 40818707 41348769 41768728 41798659 41998605
42498469 42668376 42558311 41948323 41408255 41038258
40888299 40778461SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 7:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter | 6 hr |
| Jul 21, 4:54 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 5:31 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton and 7 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 21, 7:39 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Houghton, Iron and 3 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 9:28 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie and 42 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 21, 9:45 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie and 43 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 21, 12:19 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Arenac, Bay, Cheboygan, Clare and 30 more | 116 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.