Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Green Bay, WI

448 
WWUS53 KGRB 211327
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
827 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

WIC029-211400-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-160721T1400Z/
DOOR WI-
827 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR DOOR COUNTY...

AT 827 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEWPORT STATE PARK TO 6 MILES NORTH
OF BAY SHORE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
DOOR COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:
CARLSVILLE...PENINSULA CENTER...WASHINGTON ISLAND...SHOEMAKER
POINT...ROCK ISLAND STATE PARK... ROSIERE...MAPLEWOOD...BAILEYS
HARBOR...NAMUR AND VALMY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4517 8697 4510 8695 4501 8710 4486 8714
      4465 8733 4465 8739 4467 8738 4467 8780
      4487 8765 4493 8745 4507 8736 4516 8742
      4523 8737 4522 8721 4533 8710 4534 8701
      4541 8700 4540 8684 4543 8682 4539 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 299DEG 31KT 4513 8701 4473 8781 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

KURIMSKI

924 
WWUS53 KGRB 211343
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
843 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

WIC029-211400-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-160721T1400Z/
DOOR WI-
843 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR DOOR COUNTY...

AT 843 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWPORT STATE PARK TO 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ALGOMA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STURGEON BAY...JACKSONPORT...EGG HARBOR...WHITEFISH BAY...BRUSSELS...
BAILEYS HARBOR...FORESTVILLE...CLAY BANKS...CARLSVILLE AND PENINSULA
CENTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4501 8710 4486 8714 4477 8726 4465 8734
      4465 8739 4467 8738 4467 8780 4487 8765
      4493 8745 4504 8732 4517 8697 4510 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1343Z 283DEG 44KT 4508 8676 4469 8756 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

KURIMSKI

784 
WWUS53 KGRB 211356
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
856 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

WIC029-211406-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-160721T1400Z/
DOOR WI-
856 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DOOR COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 900
AM CDT...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4501 8710 4486 8714 4477 8726 4465 8734
      4465 8739 4467 8738 4467 8780 4487 8765
      4493 8745 4504 8732 4517 8697 4510 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1354Z 282DEG 34KT 4508 8676 4469 8756 

$$

KURIMSKI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
348 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

A round of thunderstorms this morning...otherwise very warm and
humid the next several days. a little cooler and not as humid next
week.

The main band of westerlies will sag south a bit and deamplify
during the period. The warm and very humid air across the area
will gradually get displaced to the south by a series of frontal
systems and thunderstorm outflows. That will allow temperatures to
settle back closer to, but still above, normal levels by early
next week. Given the available moisture and numerous opportunities
for convection, precipitation amounts for the next week are likely
to be above normal.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Large, mature MCS is barreling southeast toward the area from
northwest Wisconsin. It is likely to affect the entire forecast
area this morning. Morning PoPs were based on radar trends. Severe
potential is a little less clear. System may tend to weaken as it
arrives. But any upticks in intensity could certainly result in a
threat for damaging winds.

The forecast becomes much less certain after the MCS moves
through. The models that were handling it (and it was certainly a
minority of them) suggest it will be the main show and the
potential for redevelopment this afternoon and evening is
minimal. Hard to completely go with that, so PoPs were trimmed
back in the wake of the MCS, but left some 20-30 PoPs in for the
afternoon and evening in case there is redevelopment.

After the arrival of rain-cooled air with the MCS outflow and
having considerable debris clouds to break through, max temps
needed to be trimmed. Updated apparent temperatures for the
afternoon were marginal at best for a Heat Advisory. After talking
things over with the forecaster at MKX, decided to drop the
advisory.

Friday looks to be a lull in the thunderstorm potential as the
boundary sags a little farther south of us with upper flow tilting
a little more WNW in advance of shortwave ridging approaching from
the west.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Zonal upper level flow across southern Canada and the northern
CONUS is expected during this part of the forecast. Though the
models continued to show some differences in the timing of a mid
level trough and surface system moving through the area, Saturday
night appears to be the most likely time for thunderstorms over the
weekend. There should be plenty of time for the atmosphere to
destabilize Saturday afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front
so it looks like some of the storms will be strong, possibly
severe. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be above normal, but
temperatures should be closer to normal for the early part of next
week, in the wake of the cold front.

The best bet for showers and storms during the rest of the long
term forecast looks to be on Wednesday with the approach of the
next significant mid level short wave.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Stratus deck with IFR and some low-end MVFR or IFR ceilings has
overspread the NW part of the forecast area. It looks like that
will advance across the rest of the area as well. Otherwise, the
main aviation hazard will be the thunderstorms this morning.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Skowronski

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
427 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-221100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
427 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. THE
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE CLUSTER WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...SO THE GREATEST RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE IN THAT
AREA. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. IF ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THEY COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MORNING STORMS USE UP
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THAT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
LIMITED.

COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS FROM THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIMIT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A DANGEROUS
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON IS LOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. IT WILL STILL BE VERY HUMID...AND ANYONE
WITH A HEAT-SENSITIVE HEALTH CONDITION SHOULD PLAN ON TAKING
APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS TO REMAIN SAFE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY DURING THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR PERSONS WITH CERTAIN HEALTH ISSUES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS TOO
SOON TO DETERMINE THEIR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-221100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
427 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A HAZARD TO BOATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO POSE A
HAZARD...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR STORMS IS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...HUMID AIR FLOWING OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG WHICH WILL POSE A HAZARD TO
BOATERS AT TIMES.

SKOWRONSKI/MG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
616 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

WIZ018-030-211245-
LINCOLN WI-MARATHON WI-
616 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARATHON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 615 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MEDFORD TO NEAR GREENWOOD. MOVEMENT WAS
EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAUSAU...MARSHFIELD...WESTON...MERRILL...RIB MOUNTAIN...MOSINEE...
ABBOTSFORD...SPENCER...
COUNCIL GROUNDS STATE PARK AND NEW WOOD WILDLIFE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4504 9020 4512 9020 4512 9005
      4538 9004 4540 8942 4516 8942 4469 8947
      4468 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1115Z 276DEG 21KT 4520 9037 4479 9066

KURIMSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
708 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

WIZ035-211300-
WOOD WI-
708 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WOOD COUNTY UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 708 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPENCER TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PITTSVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MARSHFIELD AROUND 715 AM CDT.
  BABCOCK AROUND 725 AM CDT.
  PITTSVILLE AROUND 730 AM CDT.
  WISCONSIN RAPIDS AROUND 750 AM CDT.
  LAKE WAZEECHA AROUND 755 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
RUDOLPH...CRANMOOR... BAKERVILLE...POWERS BLUFF COUNTY
PARK...LINDSEY...BETHEL...PORT EDWARDS... MILLADORE...HEWITT AND
AUBURNDALE.

LAT...LON 4468 9032 4468 8985 4451 8984 4451 8973
      4425 8972 4425 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1208Z 270DEG 30KT 4470 9029 4437 9034

KURIMSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
710 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 AM     HAIL             WAUSAU                  44.96N 89.63W
07/21/2016  M1.00 INCH       MARATHON           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS ALSO DOWN

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
715 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TOMAHAWK                45.46N 89.73W
07/21/2016                   LINCOLN            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

0625 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RHINELANDER             45.63N 89.41W
07/21/2016                   ONEIDA             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
744 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 AM     TSTM WND GST     MOSINEE                 44.78N 89.69W
07/21/2016  M60 MPH          MARATHON           WI   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
753 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BOWLER                  44.86N 88.96W
07/21/2016                   SHAWANO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN REPORTED IN BOWLER.

&&

MPC