Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403

July 21, 201614 counties in Minnesota; 14 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 21, 2016, 12:32 AM CDT for 14 counties in Minnesota; 14 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 21, 2016, 12:32 AM CDT (05:32 UTC)
Expired
Jul 21, 2016, 6:40 AM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 28 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Cass County, MN, Cook County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Pine County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN, Todd County, MN, Ashland County, WI, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Iron County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

21 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 21, 1:03 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCass, Itasca57 min
Jul 21, 1:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHKoochiching, Saint Louis62 min
Jul 21, 1:34 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Crow Wing41 min
Jul 21, 1:51 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDouglas, Morrison, Todd39 min
Jul 21, 2:01 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Itasca, Koochiching, Saint Louis59 min
Jul 21, 2:14 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Carlton, Crow Wing, Pine61 min
Jul 21, 2:17 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHLake, Saint Louis58 min
Jul 21, 3:00 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCarlton, Saint Louis60 min
Jul 21, 3:14 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCook, Lake46 min
Jul 21, 3:41 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHLake, Saint Louis46 min
Jul 21, 3:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCarlton, Pine40 min
Jul 21, 3:53 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHSaint Louis18 min
Jul 21, 3:59 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCook61 min
Jul 21, 4:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAshland, Bayfield, Douglas55 min
Jul 21, 4:27 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXTodd33 min
Jul 21, 4:32 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAshland, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Sawyer, Washburn43 min
Jul 21, 4:41 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAshland, Iron49 min
Jul 21, 4:57 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAshland, Iron, Price, Sawyer63 min
Jul 21, 5:10 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBarron, Chippewa, Dunn, Rusk65 min
Jul 21, 5:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDouglas, Morrison, Todd30 min
Jul 21, 5:42 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXMorrison, Todd35 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2016-07-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2808 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2016-07-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 23 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2808 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-129 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
915 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 20, 8:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBecker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Grant, Hubbard and 12 more6 hr
Jul 20, 11:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Beltrami, Clearwater, Kittson, Lake of the Woods, Mahnomen and 6 more59 min
Jul 20, 11:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Cass, Crow Wing, Itasca, Koochiching, Saint Louis54 min
Jul 21, 2:30 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Benton, Carlton, Chisago, Crow Wing, Douglas and 10 more2 hr
Jul 21, 3:54 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshland, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Florence, Forest and 8 more2 hr
Jul 21, 4:31 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Calumet, Door, Florence, Forest, Kewaunee and 12 more6 hr
Jul 21, 6:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuffalo, Clark, Eau Claire, Florence, Forest, Jackson and 15 more2 hr
Jul 21, 8:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalumet, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green and 16 more2 hr
Jul 21, 8:45 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCColumbia, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Jefferson, Marquette and 5 more7 hr
Jul 21, 11:19 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMilwaukee, Racine116 min
Jul 21, 3:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Buffalo, Columbia, Eau Claire, Iowa, Jackson and 9 more115 min
Jul 21, 4:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCColumbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 13 more5 hr
Jul 21, 5:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 12 more93 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2016Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2016Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.