Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
219 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Early morning strong to severe storms are expected to give way to
another hot and humid day today, with the worst of the heat and
humidity focused across northwest Wisconsin. Overnight storms are
expected to have dissipated or moved through NW Wisconsin by mid-
morning today, with a wind shift to northwest winds across northeast
Minnesota today as the cold front moves in from the west. Cloud
cover still remains a question for today which impacts the heat,
but current thinking is that this convection will exit fast enough
to allow for plenty of diurnal heating during the day to allow highs
to warm up into the low 90s. Another round of isolated storms is
possible this afternoon mainly across northwest Wisconsin in what is
still expected to be a very unstable airmass ahead of the cold front
approaching from the west. Heat advisory still looks good, though
may be able to clip Cass and Crow Wing out of it depending on how
their dew points fare following the early morning storms. Heat
indicies in the 100+ range across far east-central MN and almost all
of northwest Wisconsin. The Twin Ports are a bit tricky because the
cold front may be right on our doorstep this afternoon with the
lower dew points being advected in from the northwest as temps
rise...but will continue the advisory since the front could always
lag behind slightly from the current progression resulting in an
hour or two of 100+ heat indicies.

Tonight an area high pressure will build in from the west resulting
in clearing skies and light to near calm winds. Dew points will fall
through the night as a drier airmass moves in from the northwest.
Widespread fog is not anticipated because of the drier air moving
in, but wouldn't be surprised if some patchy fog develops in low
lying areas. Lows in the low to mid 60s, with some locations across
the MN Arrowhead falling to the upper 50s.

Friday will be sunny and very warm, but without the oppressive
humidity of the past few days as high pressure continues to build.
Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s similar to Thursday, but dew
point values only in the upper 50s to near 60 will feel a bit less
sticky.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Friday night appears relatively quiet still with the surface ridge
still keeping the weather west of the Northland.  Our next major
weather maker comes in on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and
evening, and has some potential for severe weather as a warm front
lifts up into the area during the afternoon and evening. Have raised
pops during this period so there are some places with likely pops.

Sunday and Monday the heat and thunderstorm chances let up somewhat,
with highs by Sunday in the mid 70s and low 80s, warming only
slightly for Monday.

Model differences become ugly by mid week, with the GFS generating a
strong shortwave over the high plains of the western Dakotas, which
moves east across the upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. This
feature is either non-existent or very weak on the ECMWF.  As a
result there is high uncertainty in precipitation chances for the
Tuesday-Thursday time range and have had to go with some small
chance pops. Temperatures near normal during this time range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms will move through northeastern
Minnesota this morning, bringing intense winds and some hail. This
will result in some high winds at the TAF sites, along with some
very heavy rain and hail. Some IFR CIG's and VSBY's will also be
possible overnight, in addition to MVFR and even some VFR at
first. Conditions will gradually improve most areas during the day
on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  91  63  88  65 /  30  10   0  10
INL  88  62  86  62 /  20   0   0  20
BRD  93  64  91  67 /  20  10  10  30
HYR  93  62  91  64 /  40  10   0  10
ASX  93  64  90  64 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>004-006>009.

MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ025-033>038.

LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-211300-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
347 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
RELIEF. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THE GREATEST THREATS. THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM 95 TO 105 EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HEAT
ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. A FEW OF THE MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WOULD SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

LSZ121-140>148-211300-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
347 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

HUYCK

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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