Mesoscale Discussion 978

Issued

Jun 18, 2016, 3:14 PM CDT (20:14 UTC)

Expired

Jun 18, 2016, 5:15 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

942 
ACUS11 KWNS 182015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182014 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-182215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL OK...WRN N TX...ERN TX
PANHANDLE...S-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 182014Z - 182215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY INITIATED NORTH OF OKC
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
ICT. STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 90S F WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 70S F. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT MCV WILL HELP
TO FOSTER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SWRN OK INTO S-CNTRL
KS...AND PERHAPS INTO WRN N TX AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. 

LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH NLY MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASES SOME WITH WWD EXTENT ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AT PEAK INTENSITY...STORMS THAT
FORM NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR WEST STORMS WILL
INITIATE...BUT SOMEWHAT STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH ANY CONVECTION
ACROSS WRN OK INTO WRN N TX. AT THIS TIME...THE MAGNITUDE AND
COVERAGE OF THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/GUYER.. 06/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33649976 35590019 35209874 38479836 38249657 34979697
            34209730 33629769 33249841 33259903 33649976

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.