Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 973
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 18, 2016, 2:07 AM CDT for Comanche County, Kansas; 17 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 18, 2016, 2:07 AM CDT (07:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 18, 2016, 3:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Comanche County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harper County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK
The radar
The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2997 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -129 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1587 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 5 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
582
ACUS11 KWNS 180707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180707
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-180800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN OK
CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 180707Z - 180800Z
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH A POTENTIALLY SOUTHWARD-ACCELERATING CLUSTER OF STORMS
FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS REGION IS EFFECTIVELY UPGRADED TO SLIGHT AND
MARGINAL RISKS THROUGH 12Z. PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE IS 40
PERCENT.
DISCUSSION...A RECENT INCREASE IN BOTH REFLECTIVITY AND VELOCITY
TRENDS HAVE OCCURRED AS SEPARATED CELLS CONGLOMERATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KS...JUST SOUTH OF THE DODGE CITY AREA. AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS CLUSTER REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AMID 72-75 DEG F
SURFACE DEW POINTS. SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR MIGHT BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS WESTERN OK...A SCENARIO
SIMULATED IN RECENT HRRR-PARALLEL RUNS. GIVEN THE VERY STEEP 700-500
MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 DEG C/KM SAMPLED IN 00Z AREA RAOBS...THE
SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS
EMBEDDED AREAS OF SEVERE HAIL.
..GRAMS/HART.. 06/18/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36990029 37159959 37249884 37059844 36799800 35689785
34799818 34579871 34619936 35039976 36090004 36990029SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 3:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Cowley, Harper, Harvey, Kingman, Reno and 3 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 18, 3:33 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Custer, Dewey and 9 more | 4 hr |
| Jun 18, 4:51 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer, Grady, Kingfisher and 2 more | 54 min |
| Jun 18, 6:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche, Custer and 9 more | 29 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.