Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 962

June 17, 201686 counties in Georgia; Brunswick County, New Hanover County, North Carolina; 22 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 17, 2016, 12:59 PM EDT for 86 counties in Georgia; Brunswick County, New Hanover County, North Carolina; 22 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 17, 2016, 12:59 PM EDT (16:59 UTC)
Expired
Jun 17, 2016, 3:00 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 110 counties

Appling County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Baldwin County, GA, Barrow County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Burke County, GA, Butts County, GA, Candler County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Clarke County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Crisp County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Elbert County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Greene County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Henry County, GA, Houston County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jackson County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, Long County, GA, Macon County, GA, Madison County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pike County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Schley County, GA, Screven County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Turner County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Upson County, GA, Walton County, GA, Warren County, GA, Washington County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA, Brunswick County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Aiken County, SC, Allendale County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Beaufort County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Horry County, SC, Jasper County, SC, Lexington County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2016-06-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 666 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2016-06-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 193 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
666 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-257 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1607 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
193 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

162 
ACUS11 KWNS 171659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171659 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-171900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC AND FAR SRN NC / SERN INTO W-CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 171659Z - 171900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE OWING TO LOWER-END
SEVERE GUSTS APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE.  ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS REGION FROM
COASTAL SC INTO E-CNTRL GA HAS BEEN VOID OF CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
MORNING AND THE RESULTANT HEATING HAS STEEPENED 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES. 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS-- IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/SUPPORT FOR STORMS.  

SURFACE CONDITIONS S OF A COLD FRONT /ANALYZED FROM SRN COASTAL NC
WWD INTO NRN GA/ HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90 DEG NEAR THE COAST TO THE
MID 90S OVER CNTRL GA.  RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S DEG F IS RESULTING IN A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER /MLCAPE 2000-3500 J PER KG/.  ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER COMPARED TO THE MS/AL REGION...STRONGER 2-4
KM FLOW WILL PROBABLY GLANCE SC/ERN GA.  THE KCAE VAD SHOWS 30-45 KT
IN THIS LAYER ATOP STEEP 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES /AROUND 9 DEG C PER KM/.
WATER-LOADING AND SOME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ISOLD TO SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THIS REGION.

..SMITH/GUYER.. 06/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   33958039 34217768 31448125 31548328 31978440 32928470
            34238439 33958039

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 17, 12:34 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Chattahoochee, Coweta, Douglas, Fayette, Haralson and 13 more116 min
Jun 17, 1:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaldwin, Barrow, Bartow, Bibb, Bleckley, Bryan and 92 more8 hr
Jun 17, 3:44 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Baldwin, Ben Hill, Bibb, Bleckley, Bryan and 55 more61 min
Jun 17, 5:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien and 34 more6 hr
Jun 17, 7:15 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Early, Quitman60 min
Jun 17, 7:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien and 32 more67 min
Jun 16, 11:36 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford and 3 more84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.