Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 955
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2016, 11:36 PM EDT for 9 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 84 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 16, 2016, 11:36 PM EDT (03:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 17, 2016, 1:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Bertie County, NC, Camden County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Gates County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC
The radar
The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3233 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 933 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.2
- Supercell composite
- 8.4
The text
As transmitted.
048
ACUS11 KWNS 170336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170336
NCZ000-170500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170336Z - 170500Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
THEY MOVE SEWD INTO NERN NC THROUGH 05Z. DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIMITED
DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF STORMS OVER SERN VA IS MOVING SEWD AT
35-40 KT. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE OVER NERN NC REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE SFC LAYER HAS
STABILIZED...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 70S.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ONLY A WEAK
NEAR-SFC INVERSION SUGGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG SWD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ACTIVITY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN 25-40 KT WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...AND UP TO
40 KT SPEED OF MOTION OF THE LINE SUGGEST WINDS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/17/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
LAT...LON 36477780 36517686 36527626 36447585 35897584 36017743
36477780SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 12:59 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brunswick, New Hanover | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.