Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 952
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2016, 6:54 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 16, 2016, 6:54 PM EDT (22:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 16, 2016, 8:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 74 counties
Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Adams County, PA, York County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Caroline County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Highland County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Grant County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Summers County, WV, Webster County, WV
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 248 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -91 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 689 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -15 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 17 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted.
871
ACUS11 KWNS 162254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162254
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-170030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV THROUGH WRN AND NRN VA...MD AND EXTREME SERN
PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...
VALID 162254Z - 170030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
MAINLY FROM ERN WV THROUGH WRN AND NRN VA WITH THREAT SOMEWHAT MORE
MARGINAL IN SERN PA AND WITH ERN EXTENT INTO MD. A TORNADO OR TWO
REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS OVER NRN VA.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS ERN WV IS
MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. OTHER MORE DISCRETE CELLS REMAIN OVER
NRN VA. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER MUCH
OF VA WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG WITH 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. A ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM A SEWD-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT
SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH WRN AND NRN/CNTRL VA NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.
A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ON VIS IMAGERY
MOVING WWD THROUGH NRN VA. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SELY EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHERE AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE.
DISCRETE STORMS INTERACTING WITH AND CROSSING INTO THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY POSE A RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN SRN PA WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE STABLE...RESULTING IN AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF
STORMS.
..DIAL.. 06/16/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39617851 40087707 39637607 38157648 37647953 37438080
37688167 37998170 38977949 39617851SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 11:27 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Charles, Frederick, Garrett, Montgomery, Washington | 63 min |
| Jun 16, 1:08 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Charles, Frederick and 7 more | 97 min |
| Jun 16, 1:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles and 9 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 16, 4:20 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Charles, Frederick and 6 more | 55 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.