Alert archive / West Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 950
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2016, 1:08 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 16, 2016, 1:08 PM EDT (17:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 16, 2016, 2:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 120 counties
Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Knox County, OH, Licking County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Portage County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Adams County, PA, Allegheny County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Greene County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Arlington County, VA, Caroline County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Highland County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Berkeley County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Brooke County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Preston County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV
The radar
The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 53 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 645 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -71 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 838 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 36 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 130 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.6
The text
As transmitted.
165
ACUS11 KWNS 161709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161708
VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-161845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OH...SWRN/SRN PA...NRN WV...MD...NRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 161708Z - 161845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO DMGG WINDS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS FROM ERN OH SEWD
ACROSS SWRN PA AND NRN WV. THESE THREATS WILL EVENTUALLY EXTEND EWD
ACROSS NRN VA AND MD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED BY 18-19Z.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR/SE OF CLEVELAND OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HRS...ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
EXTENDING SWWD INTO W-CNTRL OH. PRIMARY SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER WRN
LAKE ERIE...WITH COLD FRONT ENTERING NWRN OH AS OF 16Z. STRONG SFC
HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OH AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN OH...WITH A QUICK EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS
PRIOR TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LIKELY MCS.
CONVECTION PERSISTING ACROSS WRN PA AND NERN WV HAS RESULTED IN
EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM E-CNTRL OH INTO NRN WV...BUT
CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL AIR MASS RECOVERY. PRIMARY THREAT IS LIKELY TO
BE DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...BUT ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MODERATELY STRONG WLY LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW
WAS OBSERVED IN PBZ/CLE VWP DATA...AND VEERING WITHIN THE LOWEST 1
KM AGL MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY
WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS MORE DISCRETE. TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A WW...LIKELY BY 18-19Z.
..ROGERS/GOSS.. 06/16/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 40598246 41418146 41688098 40767980 39917721 39247649
37867628 38417988 39098286 40018330 40598246SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 11:27 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Charles, Frederick, Garrett, Montgomery, Washington | 63 min |
| Jun 16, 1:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles and 9 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 16, 4:20 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Charles, Frederick and 6 more | 55 min |
| Jun 16, 6:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles, Frederick and 7 more | 96 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.