Alert archive / West Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 951

June 16, 20165 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2016, 4:20 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2016, 4:20 PM EDT (20:20 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2016, 5:15 PM EDT
In force: 55 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 105 counties

Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Charles County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Noble County, OH, Washington County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Greene County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Highland County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Berkeley County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Brooke County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mason County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Preston County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 248 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -91 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 689 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 17 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

782 
ACUS11 KWNS 162020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162020 
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-162115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WV...SRN PA...MD...NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...

VALID 162020Z - 162115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF WW 261. A LOCALIZED SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY A PAIR OF DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS FAR ERN WV AND NRN VA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION CROSSING THE UPPER OH VALLEY...WITH SEVERAL MERGERS
RESULTING IN A GRADUALLY ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS OF WV AND SRN PA. MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUSTAINING STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG/S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND EFFECTIVE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SWRN PA INTO NRN
MD/VA...WHERE STRONG HEATING AMIDST RELATIVELY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG.
STRONG TO DMGG WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

ALSO OF NOTE...A COUPLE OF DISCRETE TSTMS OVER FAR ERN WV MOVING
TOWARDS NRN VA APPEAR TO BE ANCHORED ALONG/NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE AN INCREASED SHORT-TERM LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 06/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   38988264 40088142 40578059 40507958 40237853 39877782
            39557676 38477631 38127620 38137670 38097779 37607887
            38058063 38988264

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 16, 11:27 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Charles, Frederick, Garrett, Montgomery, Washington	63 min
Jun 16, 1:08 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Charles, Frederick and 7 more	97 min
Jun 16, 1:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles and 9 more	8 hr
Jun 16, 6:54 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles, Frederick and 7 more	96 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.