Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 866

June 10, 20164 counties in Michigan; 24 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 10, 2016, 6:09 PM EDT for 4 counties in Michigan; 24 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 10, 2016, 6:09 PM EDT (22:09 UTC)
Expired
Jun 10, 2016, 8:15 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 28 counties

Baraga County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Iron County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Clark County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Price County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2016-06-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2016-06-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 143 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
697 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
302 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

291 
ACUS11 KWNS 102209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102209 
MIZ000-WIZ000-110015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN WI...MI WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA...

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 242...

VALID 102209Z - 110015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 242 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 242...AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED PRIOR
TO 23Z FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

DISCUSSION...TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN
PROGRESS AT 22Z ACROSS WW 242. THE FIRST WAS OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO IRON COUNTY
MICHIGAN...WHERE A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING SEGMENT WITH A HISTORY OF
DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES MOVING EAST AT AROUND 45 MPH. STRONG STORMS
EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WAS LOWER. FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
EAU CLAIRE COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO WW 243.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE NORTHERN AREA OF SEVERE STORMS
TRAVERSING THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE PRESENCE OF 35 KTS OF
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONG SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG...HOWEVER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WAS BELOW 30 KTS. OVERALL...BOTH AREAS OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED BOWING SEGMENTS.  

A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 23Z FOR AREAS EAST INTO THE DOOR
PENINSULA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF WW 243.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 06/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44248963 44499069 44639136 45169100 45779031 46338954
            46708886 46848808 46588738 46118725 45678715 45168710
            44798734 43948775 43758833 43918932 44248963

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 10, 3:44 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBaraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Marquette and 1 more5 hr
Jun 10, 6:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDelta, Menominee4 hr
Jun 10, 7:57 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegan, Antrim, Barry, Benzie, Charlevoix, Clare and 22 more2 hr
Jun 9, 8:58 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDane, Green, Iowa, Lafayette, Rock, Walworth2 hr
Jun 10, 1:02 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshland, Barron, Bayfield, Buffalo, Burnett, Chippewa and 16 more88 min
Jun 10, 3:54 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Buffalo, Clark, Columbia, Crawford, Dane and 19 more96 min
Jun 10, 4:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Buffalo, Crawford, Jackson, Juneau, La Crosse and 4 more6 hr
Jun 10, 6:51 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Buffalo, Crawford, Jackson, Juneau, La Crosse and 4 more114 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.