Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 863
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 10, 2016, 2:54 PM CDT for 4 counties in Iowa; 18 counties in Minnesota; 25 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 10, 2016, 2:54 PM CDT (19:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 10, 2016, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 47 counties
Allamakee County, IA, Howard County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Blue Earth County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Houston County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, Mower County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Rice County, MN, Steele County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Winona County, MN, Adams County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Clark County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Portage County, WI, Richland County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI
The radar
The La Crosse radar (KARX), 15 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 746 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -336 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1531 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 236 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 229 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
148
ACUS11 KWNS 101954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101954
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-102130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN AND CNTRL WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101954Z - 102130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN MN
EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL WI. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
ACROSS SCNTRL MN WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED WITH MLCAPE NOW
ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION IS
DIMINISHING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT EVIDENT ON THE LACROSSE WI WSR-88D VWP SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F
ALONG WITH DIRECTIONAL TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOW-LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
AS WELL.
..BROYLES/WEISS.. 06/10/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43249243 42959010 42968903 43208858 43608844 44148864
44418900 44789029 44859212 44369451 44059490 43729476
43509394 43249243SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 7:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clinton, Jackson | 2 hr |
| Jun 10, 12:02 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Dickinson, Emmet, Kossuth, O'Brien, Osceola and 2 more | 88 min |
| Jun 10, 3:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allamakee, Cerro Gordo, Emmet, Hancock, Howard, Kossuth and 6 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 10, 5:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allamakee, Cerro Gordo, Emmet, Hancock, Howard, Kossuth and 5 more | 114 min |
| Jun 9, 11:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Kittson | 4 hr |
| Jun 10, 2:44 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Ashland, Barron, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn, Eau Claire and 17 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 10, 5:09 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Calumet, Clark, Eau Claire, Florence, Forest and 18 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 10, 5:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Dodge, Door, Fond du Lac and 16 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.