Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 862

June 10, 20168 counties in Iowa; 41 counties in Minnesota; 22 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 10, 2016, 12:02 PM CDT for 8 counties in Iowa; 41 counties in Minnesota; 22 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 10, 2016, 12:02 PM CDT (17:02 UTC)
Expired: Jun 10, 2016, 1:30 PM CDT
In force: 88 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 80%

All 71 counties

Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Mower County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Pine County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Steele County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Winona County, MN, Wright County, MN, Ashland County, WI, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Iron County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 40 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 746 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -336 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1531 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 236 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 229 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

586 
ACUS11 KWNS 101703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101702 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-101830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN MN...NW WI...NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 101702Z - 101830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN
EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE SD WITH A 1005 MB LOW OVER SCNTRL MN. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO WRN WI WITH SFC WINDS
LOCALLY BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. ACCORDING TO
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE SFC LOW IN SCNTRL MN EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN WI. A
COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
CNTRL AND NE MN. THE WRF-HRRR SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW WIND PROFILES WITH
STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW
ABOVE 3 KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT AS A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
MOST LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 06/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   46158989 46999045 47289167 47189288 46309365 45209437
            44459533 43989600 43519614 43199597 43029566 42999482
            43599238 44279078 45238997 46158989

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 9, 7:58 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clinton, Jackson	2 hr
Jun 10, 2:54 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allamakee, Howard, Mitchell, Winneshiek	96 min
Jun 10, 3:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allamakee, Cerro Gordo, Emmet, Hancock, Howard, Kossuth and 6 more	6 hr
Jun 10, 5:51 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allamakee, Cerro Gordo, Emmet, Hancock, Howard, Kossuth and 5 more	114 min
Jun 9, 11:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Kittson	4 hr
Jun 10, 2:44 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Ashland, Barron, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn, Eau Claire and 17 more	5 hr
Jun 10, 5:09 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Calumet, Clark, Eau Claire, Florence, Forest and 18 more	2 hr
Jun 10, 5:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Dodge, Door, Fond du Lac and 16 more	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.