Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 869

June 10, 201628 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 10, 2016, 7:57 PM EDT for 28 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 10, 2016, 7:57 PM EDT (23:57 UTC)
Expired: Jun 10, 2016, 10:00 PM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 28 counties

Allegan County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Barry County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 12.0 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 697 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 302 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

247 
ACUS11 KWNS 102357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102357 
MIZ000-110200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI...LAKE MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 102357Z - 110200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH
03-04Z.  ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
UPPER PENINSULA OF MI INTO NORTHEAST WI WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT
40-45 MPH...CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AND AFFECTING WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AFTER 01Z.  ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
AS THE STORMS CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVE INTO A MORE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORMS MAY TEND
TO LESSEN THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
/MID-UPPER 50S/ AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST.  GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GUST FRONT OR IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA UNTIL AROUND 03-04Z. 

ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT EXPECTED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 06/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   45768626 45928548 45668467 45108450 44658453 44088461
            43008482 42588489 42318502 42348590 42578719 43148772
            43938743 44738701 45768626

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 10, 3:44 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Marquette and 1 more	5 hr
Jun 10, 6:09 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baraga, Dickinson, Iron, Menominee	2 hr
Jun 10, 6:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Delta, Menominee	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.