Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 761
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 27, 2016, 2:14 AM CDT for 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 61 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 27, 2016, 2:14 AM CDT (07:14 UTC)
- Expired
- May 27, 2016, 3:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Austin County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Colorado County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Harris County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX
The radar
The Houston radar (KHGX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 00:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 272 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1364 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 680 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 18 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 1.5
The text
As transmitted.
018
ACUS11 KWNS 270715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270714
TXZ000-270815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX AND THE UPPER TX COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 270714Z - 270815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND THE UPPER TX COAST
FOR MAINLY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING-WIND THREAT AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE-HAIL RISK.
DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY FROM 0630-0700Z SHOWS THE INITIAL SURGING
OF THE WRN END OF A TSTM BAND TO THE ESE AROUND 50 MI ESE OF AUS. A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST FEATURING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S S OF AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...FROM 55 MI S CLL TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE
RIVER...WILL SUPPORT WATER-LADEN DOWNDRAFTS. KHGX VAD DATA SHOWS A
GRADUAL VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE THROUGH 9 KM WHICH
WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE PROXIMITY TO HIGH THETA-E AND
STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL CONDITIONALLY AID IN SUPPORTING STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES
ESEWD TOWARDS THE GREATER HOUSTON METRO. RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR SHOW THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING AS WELL. IN SUMMARY...WATER
LOADING IN THE MORE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS MAY FOSTER ISOLATED BOUTS OF
DAMAGING GUSTS AND A MARGINALLY SEVERE-HAIL THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/27/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...
LAT...LON 29789753 30309678 30459457 30099416 29599444 29389712
29789753SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 7:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bosque, Comanche, Dallas, Eastland, Ellis, Erath and 12 more | 5 hr |
| May 26, 7:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Foard, Hardeman, Wichita, Wilbarger | 59 min |
| May 26, 9:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Bandera, Baylor, Brown, Burnet, Callahan and 47 more | 61 min |
| May 26, 10:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell, Comal, Fayette and 6 more | 56 min |
| May 26, 10:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bandera, Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Comal and 9 more | 6 hr |
| May 26, 11:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coryell, Dallas, Ellis, Hill, McLennan | 84 min |
| May 27, 1:30 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Concho, Eastland and 9 more | 60 min |
| May 27, 2:38 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston and 16 more | 5 hr |
| May 27, 5:50 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange and 1 more | 25 min |
| May 27, 12:57 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Austin, Bastrop, Brazoria, Caldwell, Chambers and 28 more | 63 min |
| May 27, 2:04 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Liberty, Newton and 3 more | 6 hr |
| May 27, 4:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Bee, Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Colorado and 27 more | 117 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.