Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 758

May 26, 201612 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2016, 10:04 PM CDT for 12 counties in Texas. It was in force for 56 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 26, 2016, 10:04 PM CDT (03:04 UTC)
Expired
May 26, 2016, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
56 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
95%

Counties Bastrop County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Travis County, TX, Williamson County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 3.1 hours before the alert went out and 269 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-05-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2934 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-05-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 129 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2934 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-101 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
855 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
129 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
180 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.9
Supercell composite
8.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

065 
ACUS11 KWNS 270304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270304 
TXZ000-270400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 270304Z - 270400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KERR COUNTY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES EWD AND A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON TO
COVER THIS THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THAT HAD ONCE EXHIBITED A DOWNWARD TREND
QUICKLY REGENERATED AS IT ENCOUNTERED A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE STORM IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000
J PER KG. THIS FAVORABLE AIRMASS AND THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THIS
SUPERCELL...RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM SVR THREAT. SVR TSTM WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED SOON.

..MOSIER/GUYER.. 05/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON   29869919 30279914 30669866 30769812 30699748 30489723
            30139690 29789689 29519710 29479735 29449874 29869919

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 26, 7:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBosque, Comanche, Dallas, Eastland, Ellis, Erath and 12 more5 hr
May 26, 7:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFoard, Hardeman, Wichita, Wilbarger59 min
May 26, 9:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Bandera, Baylor, Brown, Burnet, Callahan and 47 more61 min
May 26, 10:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBandera, Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Comal and 9 more6 hr
May 26, 11:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoryell, Dallas, Ellis, Hill, McLennan84 min
May 27, 1:30 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Concho, Eastland and 9 more60 min
May 27, 2:14 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Chambers, Colorado, Fayette, Fort Bend, Harris and 4 more61 min
May 27, 2:38 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAustin, Brazoria, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston and 16 more5 hr
May 27, 5:50 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange and 1 more25 min
May 27, 12:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Austin, Bastrop, Brazoria, Caldwell, Chambers and 28 more63 min
May 27, 2:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCChambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Liberty, Newton and 3 more6 hr
May 27, 4:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Bee, Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Colorado and 27 more117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.