Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 760

May 27, 201615 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 27, 2016, 1:30 AM CDT for 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 27, 2016, 1:30 AM CDT (06:30 UTC)
Expired
May 27, 2016, 2:30 AM CDT
In force
60 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Tom Green County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 241 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-05-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 301 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-05-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 85 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
301 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-307 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1278 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
85 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
100 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

334 
ACUS11 KWNS 270630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270630 
TXZ000-270730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU / TX BIG COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 270630Z - 270730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE EXPECTED COVERAGE AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SW-NE BAND OF INTENSIFYING STORMS
FROM NEAR SJT TO 45 MI W MWL.  A RECENT 42-KT GUST WAS OBSERVED AT
0555Z AT KSWW.  88D VAD DATA SHOW A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND 25-40 KT H85 FLOW FROM THE S IS ACTING TO
RETURN A MODEST INCREASE IN ELEVATED BUOYANCY AROUND THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF TWO TSTM COMPLEXES OVER S-CNTRL TX AND SRN PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL TX.  PROCESSED OUTFLOW LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN BUOYANCY IS
LIKELY EMANATING FROM THESE COMPLEXES W AND NWWD TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPING LOOSE BAND OF INTENSIFYING STORMS.  YET...STEEP H7-H5
LAPSE RATES PER THE 00Z DRT AND MAF RAOBS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING
STORMS WILL MAINTAIN VIGOR FOR SOME TIME BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS TO THE E.  IN SUMMARY...A MARGINAL
SEVERE-HAIL THREAT AND STRONG GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   31520107 33089910 33159808 32329782 30949943 30840069
            31520107

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 26, 7:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBosque, Comanche, Dallas, Eastland, Ellis, Erath and 12 more5 hr
May 26, 7:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFoard, Hardeman, Wichita, Wilbarger59 min
May 26, 9:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Bandera, Baylor, Brown, Burnet, Callahan and 47 more61 min
May 26, 10:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell, Comal, Fayette and 6 more56 min
May 26, 10:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBandera, Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Comal and 9 more6 hr
May 26, 11:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoryell, Dallas, Ellis, Hill, McLennan84 min
May 27, 2:14 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Chambers, Colorado, Fayette, Fort Bend, Harris and 4 more61 min
May 27, 2:38 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAustin, Brazoria, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston and 16 more5 hr
May 27, 5:50 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange and 1 more25 min
May 27, 12:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Austin, Bastrop, Brazoria, Caldwell, Chambers and 28 more63 min
May 27, 2:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCChambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Liberty, Newton and 3 more6 hr
May 27, 4:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Bee, Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Colorado and 27 more117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.