Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 650
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 18, 2016, 4:43 PM MDT for Doña Ana County, Otero County, New Mexico; El Paso County, Hudspeth County, Presidio County, Texas. It was in force for 62 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 18, 2016, 4:43 PM MDT (22:43 UTC)
- Expired
- May 18, 2016, 5:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 62 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Doña Ana County, NM, Otero County, NM, El Paso County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Presidio County, TX
The radar
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 961 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 60 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 140 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 143 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted.
946
ACUS11 KWNS 182243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182243
TXZ000-NMZ000-182345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NM / FAR W TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182243Z - 182345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE IN S-CNTRL NM AND INTO FAR W TX FROM CHIHUAHUA.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC/MRMS MESH DATA SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELLS
WITH SEVERE-HAIL SIGNATURES ACROSS S-CNTRL NM /CYCLONIC AND
ANTICYCLONIC STORMS/ INDICATING HAIL RANGING FROM 1.0-2.0 INCHES IN
DIAMETER. WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS
SWRN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BAND OF IMPLIED ASCENT
EXTENDING SWD INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA/FAR W TX ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. 22Z
SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SE-NW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
THIS REGION WITH COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS LOCATED FARTHER E NEAR
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MTNS.
MODIFYING THE 18Z EPZ RAOB YIELDS AROUND 400 J/KG MLCAPE FOR CURRENT
SURFACE CONDITIONS. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATE/WEAK BUOYANCY REGIME. AS SUCH...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/18/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...
LAT...LON 29380359 29110420 31510654 31740778 32540769 32980587
29380359SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 1:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Doña Ana, Grant, Hidalgo, Luna | 2 hr |
| May 17, 7:52 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brooks, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Starr, Zapata | 53 min |
| May 17, 8:33 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Comal, Dimmit and 13 more | 87 min |
| May 17, 10:55 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, Dimmit and 12 more | 65 min |
| May 18, 11:09 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brooks, Jim Hogg, Zapata | 96 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.