Mesoscale Discussion 649

Issued

May 18, 2016, 1:49 PM MDT (19:49 UTC)

Expired

May 18, 2016, 4:15 PM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Doña Ana County, NM, Grant County, NM, Hidalgo County, NM, Luna County, NM, El Paso County, TX

The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

610 
ACUS11 KWNS 181949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181949 
NMZ000-TXZ000-182215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 181949Z - 182215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL MOVE INTO/DEVELOP OVER THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
HOWEVER THE RELATIVELY CONFINED AREA OF THE THREAT WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SEASONABLY STRONG
MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IMPINGING ON A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MCD
AREA...THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEATING THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-40S...LIKELY WELL MIXED
THROUGHOUT A 1-1.5-KM DEEP PBL...AND MODERATELY STEEP 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM ARE PRODUCING MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG PER MODIFIED 18Z EL PASO SOUNDING AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS.
AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND A STRONG 500-300 MB WESTERLY JET STREAK NOW OVERSPREADING THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND MORE PERSISTENTLY ROTATING STORMS. 
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/MELTING IN THE DEEP WELL-MIXED PBL COULD SUPPORT
SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.  COVERAGE OF SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THAT NEEDED FOR A WEATHER
WATCH...BUT THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS SPREAD EAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

..CONIGLIO/GOSS.. 05/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31780781 31780818 31320819 31350878 31710883 32070890
            32430895 32930901 33270883 33230775 33110722 32870668
            32250594 31930566 31600549 31210549 31160574 31330592
            31410603 31480622 31740638 31770644 31780664 31780819
            31780781

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.