Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 608
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2016, 5:30 PM CDT for Gallatin County, Hardin County, Illinois; 6 counties in Indiana; 33 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2016, 5:30 PM CDT (22:30 UTC)
- Expired
- May 11, 2016, 7:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 41 counties
Gallatin County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Harrison County, IN, Perry County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Anderson County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Marion County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Union County, KY, Washington County, KY, Webster County, KY
The radar
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1524 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -49 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 790 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 269 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 233 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.3
- Supercell composite
- 6.7
The text
As transmitted.
932
ACUS11 KWNS 112231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112230
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE IL...FAR SRN IND...WRN AND CNTRL KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112230Z - 120030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP
SEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
A POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IS LOCATED ACROSS FAR SERN IL
INTO SW IND AND SWD ACROSS WRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
ESTIMATED BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE
ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE NRN
EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS SW IND BUT MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWD INTO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY OVER WRN AND CNTRL KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
WSR-88D VWP AT PADUCAH HAS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KT. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MULTICELL ORGANIZATION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT HAVE ACCESS
TO THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY...ON THE SERN EDGE OF THE MCS. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/11/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...
LAT...LON 37068663 37098601 37238488 37438450 37768448 38248518
38298643 38168774 37798853 37268831 37068663SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 11:20 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bond, Calhoun, Christian, Clay, Clinton, Effingham and 11 more | 55 min |
| May 11, 12:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bond, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Clark and 48 more | 12 hr |
| May 11, 2:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian, Clark and 33 more | 56 min |
| May 11, 3:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lawrence, Wabash | 66 min |
| May 11, 6:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bond, Calhoun, Clinton, Franklin, Gallatin, Greene and 19 more | 7 hr |
| May 11, 3:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bartholomew, Brown, Clay, Crawford, Daviess, Dubois and 25 more | 5 hr |
| May 10, 7:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Barren, Calloway, Christian, Clinton and 9 more | 93 min |
| May 10, 11:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Estill, Floyd, Harlan and 18 more | 96 min |
| May 11, 2:40 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Logan, Monroe, Simpson, Todd | 95 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.