Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 607

May 11, 2016Lawrence County, Wabash County, Illinois; 40 counties in Indiana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2016, 3:39 PM CDT for Lawrence County, Wabash County, Illinois; 40 counties in Indiana. It was in force for 66 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 11, 2016, 3:39 PM CDT (20:39 UTC)
Expired
May 11, 2016, 4:45 PM CDT
In force
66 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
95%
All 42 counties

Lawrence County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Bartholomew County, IN, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clay County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Orange County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Pike County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN

The radar

The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2016-05-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2016-05-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 29 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
905 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
120 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

672 
ACUS11 KWNS 112040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112039 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-112145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 112039Z - 112145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.  WW WILL BE REQUIRED BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...MATURING CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SCNTRL IL
IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING AN EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD AND COLD POOL. 
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD RESULT IN AN EWD SURGE TO CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AS FORWARD PROPAGATION INCREASES.  ANOTHER SEVERE
STORM OVER ECNTRL IL WILL SOON MOVE EAST OF WW 167.  FOR THESE
REASONS A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

..DARROW/HART.. 05/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38048797 40378732 40148527 38138583 38048797

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 11, 11:20 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Calhoun, Christian, Clay, Clinton, Effingham and 11 more55 min
May 11, 12:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBond, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Clark and 48 more12 hr
May 11, 2:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian, Clark and 33 more56 min
May 11, 5:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGallatin, Hardin2 hr
May 11, 6:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBond, Calhoun, Clinton, Franklin, Gallatin, Greene and 19 more7 hr
May 11, 3:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBartholomew, Brown, Clay, Crawford, Daviess, Dubois and 25 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.