Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 460
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 26, 2016, 6:05 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 115 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 26, 2016, 6:05 PM EDT (22:05 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 26, 2016, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 115 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 120 counties
Dearborn County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Adair County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Bath County, KY, Boone County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Carter County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Green County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Marion County, KY, Martin County, KY, Mason County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Owen County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Washington County, OH, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV
The radar
The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 135 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -160 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1073 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 339 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 325 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted.
877
ACUS11 KWNS 262205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262205
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-270000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN IND...SRN OH...CNTRL/ERN
KY...AND WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262205Z - 270000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF
22Z ACROSS THE MCD AREA ALONG AND S OF A SFC COLD FRONT. WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH MODESTLY
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AMIDST A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO
500-1500 J/KG. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS DO INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 KT BETWEEN 6-8 KM.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION /MAINLY MULTICELLS/...BUT WITH SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS ACROSS
PARTS OF SERN IND AND SRN OH...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. FINALLY...AN ONGOING MCS ACROSS SERN IL INTO SWRN IND
AND WRN KY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD...POSSIBLY REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF
A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..GLEASON/GOSS.. 04/26/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...
LAT...LON 39638526 39898356 39908278 39268063 39038013 38458021
37808134 37558203 37098458 37028651 37518567 38648514
38948537 39638526SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 1:58 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bartholomew, Brown, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Daviess and 37 more | 3 hr |
| Apr 26, 3:42 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gibson, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, Warrick | 2 hr |
| Apr 26, 4:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bartholomew, Brown, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Daviess and 29 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 26, 6:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland and 2 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 26, 1:19 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berkeley, Hampshire, Jefferson, Mineral, Morgan | 86 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.