Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 455
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 26, 2016, 12:58 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 26, 2016, 12:58 PM CDT (17:58 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 26, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 132 counties
Crawford County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Bartholomew County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clark County, IN, Clay County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Marion County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Orange County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Pike County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Washington County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Bath County, KY, Boone County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Carter County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Greene County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Licking County, OH, Madison County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Miami County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Washington County, OH, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mason County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV
The radar
The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 36 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 135 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -160 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1073 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 339 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 325 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted.
022
ACUS11 KWNS 261759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261758
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL IND...SRN OH...NW WV...NRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261758Z - 262030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCNTRL IND EWD
ACROSS SRN OH INTO NW WV. THE THREAT MAY DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN KY. WW
ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL AND SW OH THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE HRRR GRADUALLY
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
MCD AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS BELOW
25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF SCNTRL IND AND SW OH. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. IN SPITE OF THIS...A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ANALYZED BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE
STORMS CAN LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE SWD INTO NRN KY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 38068569 38238751 38818786 39518763 39848718 40118522
40138339 40138198 40148135 39948069 39548048 38878046
38368071 38128196 38078464 38068569SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 10:03 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calhoun, Greene, Jersey, Monroe, Randolph, Saint Clair | 117 min |
| Apr 26, 11:52 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bond, Calhoun, Christian, Clay, Clinton, Effingham and 18 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 26, 2:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Bond, Clay, Clinton, Edwards, Fayette and 23 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 26, 3:03 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alexander, Clark, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Edgar and 19 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 26, 5:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland and 1 more | 115 min |
| Apr 26, 5:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland and 2 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 26, 12:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berkeley, Hampshire, Jefferson, Mineral, Morgan | 86 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.