Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 455

April 26, 20165 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 26, 2016, 12:58 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 26, 2016, 12:58 PM CDT (17:58 UTC)
Expired
Apr 26, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 132 counties

Crawford County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Bartholomew County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clark County, IN, Clay County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Marion County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Orange County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Pike County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Washington County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Bath County, KY, Boone County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Carter County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Greene County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Licking County, OH, Madison County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Miami County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Washington County, OH, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mason County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 36 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-04-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 135 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-04-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 339 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
135 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-160 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1073 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
339 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
325 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

022 
ACUS11 KWNS 261759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261758 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL IND...SRN OH...NW WV...NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 261758Z - 262030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCNTRL IND EWD
ACROSS SRN OH INTO NW WV. THE THREAT MAY DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN KY. WW
ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL AND SW OH THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE HRRR GRADUALLY
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
MCD AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS BELOW
25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF SCNTRL IND AND SW OH. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. IN SPITE OF THIS...A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ANALYZED BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE
STORMS CAN LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE SWD INTO NRN KY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38068569 38238751 38818786 39518763 39848718 40118522
            40138339 40138198 40148135 39948069 39548048 38878046
            38368071 38128196 38078464 38068569

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 26, 10:03 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Greene, Jersey, Monroe, Randolph, Saint Clair117 min
Apr 26, 11:52 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBond, Calhoun, Christian, Clay, Clinton, Effingham and 18 more7 hr
Apr 26, 2:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Bond, Clay, Clinton, Edwards, Fayette and 23 more2 hr
Apr 26, 3:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Clark, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Edgar and 19 more6 hr
Apr 26, 5:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland and 1 more115 min
Apr 26, 5:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland and 2 more6 hr
Apr 26, 12:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBerkeley, Hampshire, Jefferson, Mineral, Morgan86 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.