Mesoscale Discussion 375

Issued

Apr 12, 2016, 9:43 PM CDT (02:43 UTC)

Expired

Apr 12, 2016, 11:15 PM CDT

In force

92 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

055 
ACUS11 KWNS 130244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130243 
TXZ000-130415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87...

VALID 130243Z - 130415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAIN CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS JUST WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR HAVE
EXPERIENCED SOME UPSCALE GROWTH WHICH MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION OF
THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL TO DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL
SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING ONE ENTERING WRN PORTIONS OF BEXAR COUNTY.
THIS SUPERCELL AND ANOTHER BACK IN WRN MEDINA COUNTIES HAVE STRONG
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL /GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER/.
SUPERCELL THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF BANDERA...KENDALL...AND
BLANCO COUNTIES HAS EXPERIENCED SOME UPSCALE GROWTH. THIS UPSCALE
GROWTH HAS WEAKENED THE UPDRAFT SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION
OF THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
SUPERCELL ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SIMILAR UPSCALE
GROWTH AS ITS COLD POOL AMALGAMATES WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE NRN
STORM.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR...HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...EVEN WITH THE MORE LINEAR STORMS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER SW...WITH THESE STORMS ALSO POSING A
SVR HAIL THREAT. EWX VAD SHOWS STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...RESULTING IN HELICITY VALUES THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES. RECENT VAD DATA SAMPLED 0-1 AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 350
M2/S2 AND 600 M2/S2...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT
THAT STRONG AND THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE...SUGGESTING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW.

..MOSIER.. 04/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   28540042 28790054 29140070 29190071 30290070 30289927
            30499928 30499837 30429813 30379817 30059772 30079766
            29649715 29629686 29349657 29079693 28969680 28889674
            28829668 28739664 28709664 28659677 28609692 28539692
            28499699 28559709 28559715 28389740 28139756 28169781
            28119792 28069788 28039939 28229940 28200020 28270027
            28420033 28540042

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.