Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 374
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 12, 2016, 7:26 PM CDT for 23 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 12, 2016, 7:26 PM CDT (00:26 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 12, 2016, 10:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 23 counties
Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Maverick County, TX, Medina County, TX, Real County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Wilson County, TX, Zavala County, TX
The radar
The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 634 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -170 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 912 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 34 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 247 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.6
The text
As transmitted.
659
ACUS11 KWNS 130027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130026
TXZ000-130300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 130026Z - 130300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND CNTRL TX OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF DEL RIO EXTENDING ESEWD TO SOUTH OF
SAN ANTONIO AND THEN ENEWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST. NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70 F WITH 1000 TO 1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE ESTIMATED BY MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE DEL RIO 00Z SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS
65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. SHORT-TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST
THAT THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
AND THAT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER WRN PARTS
OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS CELLS
INTENSIFY AND A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPS LATER
THIS EVENING...THE SAN ANTONIO AREA MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/13/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 30229722 29409676 28919737 28619832 28569938 28560052
30040072 30219907 30229722SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 7:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell and 26 more | 5 hr |
| Apr 12, 9:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell and 25 more | 92 min |
| Apr 12, 11:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Brazoria, Colorado, DeWitt, Fayette, Fort Bend and 7 more | 114 min |
| Apr 12, 11:26 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston and 5 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 13, 2:01 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Jackson and 3 more | 119 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.