Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 368

April 11, 201613 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 11, 2016, 5:27 PM CDT for 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 11, 2016, 5:27 PM CDT (22:27 UTC)
Expired
Apr 11, 2016, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Jones County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-04-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1237 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-04-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 331 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1237 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-122 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
804 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
331 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
347 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.4
Supercell composite
3.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

389 
ACUS11 KWNS 112227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112227 
TXZ000-120000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 112227Z - 120000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO MERIT WW
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL SUPERCELLS
ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW TX. THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE STORMS MOVE
GENERALLY EWD ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND/OR ONCE THEY MOVE INTO THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THE N TX
SUPERCELL.

..MOSIER/BROYLES.. 04/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33370060 33740008 33939957 34049914 34039868 33929851
            33719842 33269849 32879864 32589889 32429928 32369987
            32390031 32770070 33370060

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 10, 7:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMontague114 min
Apr 10, 8:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDimmit, Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Real, Uvalde and 2 more66 min
Apr 10, 9:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Childress, Clay, Cooke, Cottle and 19 more59 min
Apr 10, 9:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Baylor, Clay, Cooke, Foard, Hardeman and 4 more6 hr
Apr 10, 11:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Dimmit, Frio and 9 more54 min
Apr 11, 6:15 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Collin, Cooke, Delta, Denton, Fannin and 7 more3 hr
Apr 11, 11:48 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Marion2 hr
Apr 11, 12:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Camp, Clay, Collin, Cooke and 33 more2 hr
Apr 11, 1:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCJasper, Newton, Sabine6 hr
Apr 11, 1:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Angelina, Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee and 46 more9 hr
Apr 11, 1:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Brazos, Grimes, Hardin, Harris, Liberty and 8 more3 hr
Apr 11, 3:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Collin, Cooke, Dallas, Delta, Denton and 18 more94 min
Apr 11, 3:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNewton, Sabine93 min
Apr 11, 4:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCollin, Dallas, Denton, Hunt, Rains, Rockwall and 1 more86 min
Apr 11, 6:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNewton, Sabine66 min
Apr 11, 6:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCherokee, Nacogdoches, Panola, Rusk, Shelby5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.