Mesoscale Discussion 365

Issued

Apr 11, 2016, 3:26 PM CDT (20:26 UTC)

Expired

Apr 11, 2016, 5:00 PM CDT

In force

94 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

193 
ACUS11 KWNS 112027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112026 
TXZ000-OKZ000-112200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TX...ADJACENT SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 112026Z - 112200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF INCREASING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS
UNDERWAY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
DRYLINE...NOW SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA FALLS.  RAPID NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 21-22 IN THE VICINITY
OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...WHERE 2 HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MAXIMIZED.  THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT AN UPSCALE GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW APPEARS AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG...WHICH MAY
SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
 
VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED IN INITIAL STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND THIS RISK PROBABLY WILL INCREASE WITH
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL ALSO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
IN GROWING/EVOLVING STORM CLUSTERS WHICH SHOULD TEND TRACK EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

AIDED BY 40 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...INITIAL
STRONGER...SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS MAY TEND TO CROSS THE WEST
NORTHWEST/EAST SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY.  THIS COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE STRENGTHENING...AND SOME RISK
FOR TORNADOES...DESPITE THE FACT THAT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE
BECOME RATHER WEAK.

..KERR.. 04/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33889859 33889660 33489544 32369465 32059672 33069820
            33889859

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.