Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 360
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 11, 2016, 6:15 AM CDT for 7 counties in Oklahoma; 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 11, 2016, 6:15 AM CDT (11:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 11, 2016, 8:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Clay County, TX, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Montague County, TX, Red River County, TX, Wise County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 446 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -199 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 986 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 52 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 188 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 132 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.4
The text
As transmitted.
734
ACUS11 KWNS 111116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111115
OKZ000-TXZ000-111345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX / SRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111115Z - 111345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER/MORE
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. IF STORMS BEGIN TO EVOLVING INTO SUPERCELLS...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GREATER HAIL THREAT THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY CAPABLE OF 0.5 TO 1.25
INCH DIAMETER HAIL PER MRMS MESH DATA DURING THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES.
11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE N-CNTRL
TX VICINITY IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION. ADEQUATELY MOIST LOW LEVELS
AND 40-KT SWLY H92-H85 FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY /ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME/ WILL SUPPORT WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP COUPLED WITH STRONG
EFFECTIVE SHEAR /AOA 40 KT/ WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THIS MORNING FOR
THE POSSIBILITY THAT A GREATER HAIL THREAT DEVELOPS THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 04/11/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33639856 34189804 34369696 34369603 34189503 33799489
33259511 33099615 32929699 32899809 32979853 33639856SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 7:36 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal and 23 more | 114 min |
| Apr 10, 8:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Craig, Kay, Nowata, Osage, Ottawa, Rogers and 1 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 10, 9:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Comanche and 17 more | 59 min |
| Apr 10, 9:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 24 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 10, 11:23 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Craig, Nowata, Osage, Ottawa, Rogers, Washington | 37 min |
| Apr 11, 12:21 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Garvin, Hughes, Jefferson and 10 more | 54 min |
| Apr 11, 12:57 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Creek, Haskell, Latimer and 10 more | 4 hr |
| Apr 11, 12:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Jefferson, Love, Marshall | 2 hr |
| Apr 11, 1:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Coal, Garvin and 9 more | 9 hr |
| Apr 10, 8:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dimmit, Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Real, Uvalde and 2 more | 66 min |
| Apr 10, 11:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Dimmit, Frio and 9 more | 54 min |
| Apr 11, 11:48 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Cass, Marion | 2 hr |
| Apr 11, 1:05 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Jasper, Newton, Sabine | 6 hr |
| Apr 11, 1:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Brazos, Grimes, Hardin, Harris, Liberty and 8 more | 3 hr |
| Apr 11, 3:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Collin, Cooke, Dallas, Delta, Denton and 18 more | 94 min |
| Apr 11, 3:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Newton, Sabine | 93 min |
| Apr 11, 4:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collin, Dallas, Denton, Hunt, Rains, Rockwall and 1 more | 86 min |
| Apr 11, 5:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, King and 7 more | 93 min |
| Apr 11, 6:09 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Newton, Sabine | 66 min |
| Apr 11, 6:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cherokee, Nacogdoches, Panola, Rusk, Shelby | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.