Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 196
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 9, 2016, 10:07 AM CST for 6 parishes in Louisiana; 8 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 9, 2016, 10:07 AM CST (16:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 9, 2016, 12:30 PM CST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Allen Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Rapides Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Chambers County, TX, Hardin County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Jefferson County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Newton County, TX, Orange County, TX, Tyler County, TX
The radar
The Lake Charles radar (KLCH), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1619 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -35 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 458 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 320 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 415 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 3.6
- Supercell composite
- 21.6
The text
As transmitted.
248
ACUS11 KWNS 091607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091607
LAZ000-TXZ000-091830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091607Z - 091830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
INTENSITY INCREASE FROM SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA. A FEW TORNADOES AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS DO NOT SUGGEST AN IMMEDIATE NEED FOR A WW...BUT WW
ISSUANCE MIGHT BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 10 AM CST A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
SERN TX TO CNTRL AND NERN LA. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE WITH NEAR-SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F
SUPPORTING 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY STABLE INDICATING THE ONGOING STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. STRONG 50 KT SLY LLJ WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION
TODAY...SUPPORTING LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS...WHILE SHEAR THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION OVER SERN TX AND SWRN LA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL
DELAY/LIMIT BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT A
SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED...AND STORM UPDRAFTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SFC LAYER SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
..DIAL/GOSS.. 03/09/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29789361 29489456 29289494 29789536 30449478 31259384
31759279 31689217 31149222 30139293 29789361SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 7:29 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beauregard, Calcasieu | 2 hr |
| Mar 8, 6:25 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Brooks, Dimmit, Duval, Edwards, Frio and 13 more | 3 hr |
| Mar 8, 7:03 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aransas, Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bexar and 46 more | 9 hr |
| Mar 8, 7:07 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche and 37 more | 113 min |
| Mar 8, 9:26 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aransas, Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bell and 44 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 8, 11:54 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aransas, Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bee, Bell and 63 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 9, 3:59 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Cherokee and 23 more | 3 hr |
| Mar 9, 7:58 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aransas, Bee, Brazoria, Calhoun, Fort Bend, Goliad and 8 more | 4 hr |
| Mar 9, 10:29 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aransas, Brazoria, Calhoun, Fort Bend, Harris, Jackson and 6 more | 91 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.