Mesoscale Discussion 191

Issued

Mar 8, 2016, 7:07 PM CST (01:07 UTC)

Expired

Mar 8, 2016, 9:00 PM CST

In force

113 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

312 
ACUS11 KWNS 090108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090107 
TXZ000-090300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL TX...EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BIG COUNTRY...NRN HILL COUNTRY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 090107Z - 090300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SPORADIC...ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING AS TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE NWD TO NNEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION.  LOCALLY LARGE HAIL AND STG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY-DAY
MCS EXTENDING FROM NEAR OCH...HLR...TO NRN GILLESPIE COUNTY...WSWWD
TO INTERSECTION WITH FRESHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER EDWARDS
COUNTY...SWWD ACROSS KINNEY COUNTY.  MCS OUTFLOW IS QUASISTATIONARY
TO LOCALLY RETREATING NWD...PER SFC OBS TRENDS AND LAST VIS IMAGERY.
 BUOYANCY...MOISTURE AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EACH GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM MAIN BOUNDARY NWD...WITH MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MUCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG NEAR BOUNDARY TO AROUND
1000 J/KG INVOF US-380 ALONG NRN EDGE OF DISCUSSION AREA.  MUCINH
ALSO INCREASES NEWD THROUGH DFW METROPLEX REGION DUE TO RELATIVELY
SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERTURNING PRODUCED BY DAYTIME CONVECTION.  

NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS MAIN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE MOVES SEWD ACROSS NRN MEX...WITH
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...AS MOST OF THIS AREA WILL REMAIN W OF PRIMARY LLJ...WHICH
WILL STRENGTHEN SLOWLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SE AND E TX.  LARGEST
HAIL SIZES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
THETAE...CAPE MAGNITUDE/DEPTH...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEEP
SHEAR...AND TOTAL PW AVAILABILITY TO UPDRAFTS EACH SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED.

..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 03/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31409723 31109817 30499924 30369957 29760125 30550150
            31350145 32190111 32940064 33179957 33139784 32859682
            31699650 31439657 31409723

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.