Mesoscale Discussion 192

Issued

Mar 8, 2016, 9:26 PM CST (03:26 UTC)

Expired

Mar 8, 2016, 11:30 PM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

329 
ACUS11 KWNS 090327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090326 
TXZ000-090530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/S TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39...

VALID 090326Z - 090530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW AREA.  THOUGH A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...BKN BAND OF CONVECTION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
IS EVIDENT AS OF 03Z FROM PORTIONS HAMILTON/SAN SABA COUNTIES SSWWD
ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY FROM EDWARDS-BANDERA COUNTIES...THEN SWD
BETWEEN UVA-HDO...AND ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO MEX SW LRD.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIST AT SVR LEVELS VARYING LARGELY AS
INDIVIDUAL STORMS HAVE RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED ACCESS TO MOISTURE-RICH
INFLOW LAYER TO THEIR SE.  REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES
ACROSS NRN FRINGES OF WW FROM SRN BURNET COUNTY ACROSS NRN GILLESPIE
COUNTY.  PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR S OF THAT BOUNDARY IS
CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY SLOWLY INCREASING MLCINH WITH TIME...AND
MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES SHOULD PERSIST OVER
MOST OF WW...WITH LACK OF BOTH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIMITING HODOGRAPH SIZE.  

NEARLY MERIDIONAL CHARACTER OF AMBIENT FLOW ALOFT AMIDST FAVORABLE
DEEP SHEAR SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MESSY...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE BUT CELL MERGERS AND
HEAVY-PRECIP/CLUSTERED MODES PREDOMINANT.  NET EWD SHIFT OF ENTIRE
CONVECTIVE REGIME IS FCST BUT ONLY SLOWLY...DRIVEN BOTH BY
COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW PRODUCTION AND ONLY SLIGHTLY OFF-SLY MEAN-WIND
VECTORS.  ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEPARATELY OVER MEX
WSW MFE AND SE-E OF MMMY...BUT CONVECTION GENERATED IN THAT AREA HAS
TENDED TO WEAKEN UPON MOVING NEWD ACROSS RIO GRANDE AND INTO
HIGH-CINH ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY 00Z BRO/CRP RAOBS. 
ULTIMATELY...MORE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS
FARTHER E OF WW AREA AND CLOSER TO MORE SUSTAINED/INTENSE
MOISTURE-TRANSPORT REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ OVER MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST.  THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH SEPARATE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

LAT...LON   25999715 25849737 26029763 26079813 26239852 26249869
            26359884 26389907 26899927 27059950 27289942 27339952
            27569950 27689972 28080002 28469970 29339947 30229946
            30949857 31179851 31389859 31809802 32039743 29519709
            28339637 27969693 27259734 26459725 25999715

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.