Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1004

June 21, 20167 counties in Maryland; 42 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 21, 2016, 3:34 PM EDT for 7 counties in Maryland; 42 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 21, 2016, 3:34 PM EDT (19:34 UTC)
Expired
Jun 21, 2016, 5:00 PM EDT
In force
86 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 49 counties

Calvert County, MD, Charles County, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Albemarle County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Caroline County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Richmond, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 61 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-06-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 719 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-06-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 122 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
719 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-132 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1478 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
143 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

597 
ACUS11 KWNS 211934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211934 
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-212100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...VIRGINIA...SRN MARYLAND...DELAWARE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278...

VALID 211934Z - 212100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH 21-23Z...MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA.

DISCUSSION...PORTION OF EVOLVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WITH BOW ECHO
REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATION... SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF DOVER...AND OFF THE
DELAWARE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA...AND COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ANOTHER EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS...BENEATH SEASONABLY STRONG WEST
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH 21-23Z.  OTHERWISE...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...DISCRETE STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
PROPAGATING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.  AT LEAST
ONE OR TWO OF THESE MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER...IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND COULD STILL POSE A RISK FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL ACROSS AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE RICHMOND AREA.

..KERR.. 06/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   38277898 38867838 39177793 38897734 38857703 38787620
            38187553 37307614 37547857 38277898

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 21, 12:00 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 10 more90 min
Jun 21, 1:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll and 17 more9 hr
Jun 21, 2:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCGarrett8 hr
Jun 21, 6:30 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 16 more90 min
Jun 21, 1:08 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuchanan97 min
Jun 21, 4:26 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Tazewell, Wise and 1 more94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.