Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1003
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 21, 2016, 12:08 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 21, 2016, 12:08 PM CDT (17:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 21, 2016, 1:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 130 counties
Adair County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Carter County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clay County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Larue County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Marion County, KY, Martin County, KY, Mason County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Brown County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Highland County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Pike County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Buchanan County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Summers County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV, Wyoming County, WV
The radar
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1059 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -78 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 921 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 58 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 90 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.3
- Supercell composite
- 0.9
The text
As transmitted.
199
ACUS11 KWNS 211709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211708
WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-211845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KENTUCKY...SRN OHIO...WEST VIRGINIA/SW
VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211708Z - 211845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING
STORM DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
WATCH IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS APPEARS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION
AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL INHIBITION. MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY LARGE /1500-2000+ J PER
KG/...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...WITH WEST
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW RANGING FROM 30-50 KT. FOCUSED
FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS UNCLEAR. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEARS
PROBABLE THROUGH 18-21Z. CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED
SURFACE COLD POOLS MAY GRADUALLY LEAD TO AN UPSCALE GROWING STORM
CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS. AS THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING SURFACE GUST
POTENTIAL MAY TRANSITION FROM A RATHER LOCALIZED TO MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT...AIDED BY FURTHER STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING.
..KERR/GUYER.. 06/21/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 38488564 39118436 39478137 39467995 39157943 37658058
37158234 36718486 37178666 38488564SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 1:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bath, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott and 23 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 21, 3:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bell and 79 more | 94 min |
| Jun 21, 11:00 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Frederick, Loudoun and 9 more | 90 min |
| Jun 21, 12:06 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Accomack, Albemarle, Arlington, Augusta, Caroline, Clarke and 44 more | 9 hr |
| Jun 21, 2:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albemarle, Buckingham, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Cumberland and 36 more | 86 min |
| Jun 21, 5:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Frederick and 22 more | 90 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.