Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

...Update to Aviation for 00Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Morning showers and storms have mostly dissipated as the LLJ began
to decay this morning and early afternoon. Additional development
is occuring down in the vicinity of Table Rock Lake on the edge of
the cold pool from earlier convection.

Additional showers and storms have already started developing
across central KS/OK. CAMs is showing this activity developing
into a complex of storms with east/northeast progression. Timing
and a contaminated airmass from earlier convection will generally
limit the overall severe potential, however, a strong storm or
two may be possible west of I49 with gusty winds being the primary
threat.

Flooding may become a concern over southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri overnight as additional heavy rainfall is expected with
the next round of storms overnight.

The surface frontal boundary and parent short wave is projected to
move through the region Friday morning/afternoon. Any
precipitation should come to an end quickly. Breezy, cooler, and
drier conditions are expected behind the frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

The long term starts with a ridge building across Texas expanding
eastward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A zonal
pattern sets up over us through the weekend. Dry and mild
conditions are expected through early next week.

A subtle wave is projected to move into the region on Monday. With
little return flow and poor moisture quality, think this period
will be dry with perhaps an increase in cloud cover. If enough
moisture can come together we may see an isolated shower or two,
however, left mention of this out for now.

Zonal flow returns through the remainder of the long term with a
warming trend expected by the end of next week as a ridge begins
to build into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A cold front is currently
pushing east across central Kansas early this evening. Storms are
developing along the cold front across central Kansas and also
ahead of the front across east central Kansas. The storms ahead of
the front across east central Kansas will continue to lift
northeast this evening and not affect the TAF sites.

The cold front will spread east into the area later this evening
into the overnight hours. A line of storms will push into far
southwestern Missouri later this evening, with showers and storms
expected to linger behind the front/leading line of storms for
several hours tonight. The storms will generally weaken as they
spread east and could totally dissipate before reaching the KSGF
and KBBG sites. The storms are expected to impact the KJLN site
later this evening into tonight.

Winds will switch from the southeast to northwest behind the front
overnight. MVFR and possibility IFR ceilings will be possible
behind the front early Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Wise

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
917 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ073-MOZ066-070300-
BOURBON KS-VERNON MO-
917 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOURBON AND NORTHWESTERN VERNON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 916 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT SCOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT SCOTT...                     MARMATON...
UNIONTOWN...                      FULTON...
REDFIELD...                       RICHARDS...
DEERFIELD...                      METZ...
STOTESBURY...                     HIATTVILLE...
PETERSBURG...                     GARLAND...
DEVON...                          HORTON...
HAMMOND...

LAT...LON 3804 9476 3805 9426 3770 9462 3774 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 232DEG 33KT 3792 9462

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1013 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ101-MOZ066>068-077>079-088-089-093-094-070400-
CHEROKEE KS-HICKORY MO-JASPER MO-DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
POLK MO-BARTON MO-NEWTON MO-VERNON MO-CEDAR MO-
1013 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHEROKEE...WESTERN
NEWTON...WESTERN DADE...CEDAR...SOUTHEASTERN VERNON...JASPER...
NORTHWESTERN POLK...BARTON...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...ST. CLAIR AND
WESTERN HICKORY COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1012 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DEEPWATER TO NEAR LAMAR TO NEAR
COMMERCE.  MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOPLIN...                         CARTHAGE...
NEOSHO...                         WEBB CITY...
STOCKTON LAKE...                  STOCKTON STATE PARK...
TRUMAN LAKE...                    CARL JUNCTION...
LAMAR...                          BAXTER SPRINGS...
EL DORADO SPRINGS...              COLUMBUS...
GALENA...                         ORONOGO...
SENECA...                         CARTERVILLE...
STOCKTON...                       DUQUESNE...
GREENFIELD...                     DUENWEG...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 9466 3734 9462 3738 9462 3756 9441
      3821 9389 3820 9367 3812 9350 3807 9350
      3807 9341 3803 9334 3724 9397 3676 9451
      3677 9462 3700 9462 3700 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 312DEG 22KT 3819 9382 3752 9435 3699 9495

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1033 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

MOZ055-056-070415-
BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
1033 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN AND BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL
1115 PM CDT...

AT 1032 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF OTTERVILLE TO NEAR COLE
CAMP TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARSAW. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRUMAN STATE PARK...              TRUMAN LAKE...
LAKE OF THE OZARKS...             VERSAILLES...
WARSAW...                         LINCOLN...
COLE CAMP...                      STOVER...
SYRACUSE...                       GRAVOIS MILLS...
IONIA...                          FRISTOE...
PALO PINTO...                     RACKET...
EDMONSON...                       HASTAIN...
MORA...                           LAKEVIEW HEIGHTS...
FLORENCE...                       ZORA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9284 3845 9265 3839 9268
      3822 9301 3827 9307 3819 9307 3807 9330
      3807 9336 3814 9350 3820 9350 3821 9353
      3848 9351 3851 9346 3851 9330 3854 9329
      3853 9307 3869 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 239DEG 51KT 3880 9300 3849 9331 3813 9348

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1046 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

MOZ055-067>069-078>080-088>090-093-094-101-102-070445-
HICKORY MO-JASPER MO-GREENE MO-BARRY MO-DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
BENTON MO-ST. CLAIR MO-POLK MO-CAMDEN MO-NEWTON MO-MCDONALD MO-
DALLAS MO-CEDAR MO-
1046 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCDONALD...NEWTON...
SOUTHEASTERN CEDAR...EASTERN JASPER...NORTHWESTERN GREENE...SOUTHERN
BENTON...WESTERN CAMDEN...HICKORY...NORTHWESTERN DALLAS...DADE...
NORTHWESTERN BARRY...POLK...LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR
COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1045 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WARSAW TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF STOCKTON
TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SENECA. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.  THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT
AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN JOPLIN...            CARTHAGE...
NEOSHO...                         BOLIVAR...
STOCKTON LAKE...                  POMME DE TERRE LAKE...
LAKE OF THE OZARKS...             POMME DE TERRE STATE PARK...
STOCKTON STATE PARK...            TRUMAN LAKE...
MONETT...                         AURORA...
WILLARD...                        MOUNT VERNON...
VILLAGE OF FOUR SEASONS...        GRANBY...
WARSAW...                         STOCKTON...
DUQUESNE...                       ASH GROVE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3686 9462 3693 9461 3735 9414 3735 9408
      3740 9408 3758 9388 3824 9342 3818 9267
      3747 9326 3661 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 280DEG 18KT 3817 9338 3757 9380 3692 9453

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1105 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

MOZ057-068>070-079>081-090>096-101>104-070500-
CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-BARRY MO-LACLEDE MO-LAWRENCE MO-WEBSTER MO-
MILLER MO-POLK MO-CAMDEN MO-MCDONALD MO-NEWTON MO-DALLAS MO-
PULASKI MO-HICKORY MO-WRIGHT MO-GREENE MO-TANEY MO-STONE MO-
1105 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEBSTER...LACLEDE...NORTHWESTERN
TANEY...NORTHEASTERN MCDONALD...SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON...GREENE...
STONE...CAMDEN...EASTERN HICKORY...CHRISTIAN...DALLAS...NORTHWESTERN
WRIGHT...NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...WESTERN PULASKI...BARRY...SOUTHERN
MILLER...EASTERN POLK AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1104 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS INDICATING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50
MPH ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A LINE OF STORMS.  THIS
LINE EXTENDED FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAURIE TO NEAR WILLARD
TO NEAR GOODMAN. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...                    NIXA...
OZARK...                          REPUBLIC...
LEBANON...                        NEOSHO...
BRANSON...                        BOLIVAR...
LAKE OF THE OZARKS...             TABLE ROCK LAKE...
BENNETT SPRING STATE PARK...      LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK...
HA HA TONKA STATE PARK...         ROARING RIVER STATE PARK...
POMME DE TERRE LAKE...            MONETT...
AURORA...                         MARSHFIELD...
BATTLEFIELD...                    WILLARD...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 152.

LAT...LON 3650 9386 3672 9448 3730 9361 3807 9314
      3807 9306 3823 9304 3822 9299 3819 9301
      3822 9297 3805 9218 3802 9218 3801 9213
      3705 9272 3649 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 289DEG 33KT 3814 9297 3728 9350 3674 9430

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

MOZ069>071-081>083-091-092-095>097-102>105-070545-
CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-BARRY MO-LACLEDE MO-WEBSTER MO-PHELPS MO-
CAMDEN MO-DENT MO-PULASKI MO-TEXAS MO-OZARK MO-WRIGHT MO-TANEY MO-
STONE MO-HOWELL MO-
1151 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DENT...WEBSTER...
SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS...LACLEDE...TANEY...TEXAS...STONE...SOUTHEASTERN
CAMDEN...CHRISTIAN...WRIGHT...NORTHWESTERN HOWELL...DOUGLAS...
PULASKI...SOUTHEASTERN BARRY AND OZARK COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1150 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT
AHEAD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.  THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
STILL PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.  IT WAS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR RICHLAND TO NEAR FORDLAND TO NEAR BEAVER.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...              LEBANON...
BRANSON...                        LAKE TANEYCOMO...
BULL SHOALS LAKE...               TABLE ROCK LAKE...
TABLE ROCK STATE PARK...          MONTAUK STATE PARK...
ROARING RIVER STATE PARK...       NORFORK LAKE...
SALEM...                          WAYNESVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...                 HOLLISTER...
ST. ROBERT...                     LICKING...
SILVER DOLLAR CITY...             AVA...
KIMBERLING CITY...                FORSYTH...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 168.

LAT...LON 3650 9384 3653 9389 3711 9302 3803 9245
      3764 9144 3742 9158 3742 9164 3732 9164
      3665 9207 3649 9231 3650 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 300DEG 42KT 3794 9242 3708 9295 3654 9375

LINDENBERG