Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

...Update to Aviation for 00Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Morning showers and storms have mostly dissipated as the LLJ began
to decay this morning and early afternoon. Additional development
is occuring down in the vicinity of Table Rock Lake on the edge of
the cold pool from earlier convection.

Additional showers and storms have already started developing
across central KS/OK. CAMs is showing this activity developing
into a complex of storms with east/northeast progression. Timing
and a contaminated airmass from earlier convection will generally
limit the overall severe potential, however, a strong storm or
two may be possible west of I49 with gusty winds being the primary
threat.

Flooding may become a concern over southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri overnight as additional heavy rainfall is expected with
the next round of storms overnight.

The surface frontal boundary and parent short wave is projected to
move through the region Friday morning/afternoon. Any
precipitation should come to an end quickly. Breezy, cooler, and
drier conditions are expected behind the frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

The long term starts with a ridge building across Texas expanding
eastward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A zonal
pattern sets up over us through the weekend. Dry and mild
conditions are expected through early next week.

A subtle wave is projected to move into the region on Monday. With
little return flow and poor moisture quality, think this period
will be dry with perhaps an increase in cloud cover. If enough
moisture can come together we may see an isolated shower or two,
however, left mention of this out for now.

Zonal flow returns through the remainder of the long term with a
warming trend expected by the end of next week as a ridge begins
to build into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A cold front is currently
pushing east across central Kansas early this evening. Storms are
developing along the cold front across central Kansas and also
ahead of the front across east central Kansas. The storms ahead of
the front across east central Kansas will continue to lift
northeast this evening and not affect the TAF sites.

The cold front will spread east into the area later this evening
into the overnight hours. A line of storms will push into far
southwestern Missouri later this evening, with showers and storms
expected to linger behind the front/leading line of storms for
several hours tonight. The storms will generally weaken as they
spread east and could totally dissipate before reaching the KSGF
and KBBG sites. The storms are expected to impact the KJLN site
later this evening into tonight.

Winds will switch from the southeast to northwest behind the front
overnight. MVFR and possibility IFR ceilings will be possible
behind the front early Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Wise

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
917 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ073-MOZ066-070300-
BOURBON KS-VERNON MO-
917 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOURBON AND NORTHWESTERN VERNON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 916 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT SCOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT SCOTT...                     MARMATON...
UNIONTOWN...                      FULTON...
REDFIELD...                       RICHARDS...
DEERFIELD...                      METZ...
STOTESBURY...                     HIATTVILLE...
PETERSBURG...                     GARLAND...
DEVON...                          HORTON...
HAMMOND...

LAT...LON 3804 9476 3805 9426 3770 9462 3774 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 232DEG 33KT 3792 9462

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1013 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ101-MOZ066>068-077>079-088-089-093-094-070400-
CHEROKEE KS-HICKORY MO-JASPER MO-DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
POLK MO-BARTON MO-NEWTON MO-VERNON MO-CEDAR MO-
1013 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHEROKEE...WESTERN
NEWTON...WESTERN DADE...CEDAR...SOUTHEASTERN VERNON...JASPER...
NORTHWESTERN POLK...BARTON...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...ST. CLAIR AND
WESTERN HICKORY COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1012 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DEEPWATER TO NEAR LAMAR TO NEAR
COMMERCE.  MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOPLIN...                         CARTHAGE...
NEOSHO...                         WEBB CITY...
STOCKTON LAKE...                  STOCKTON STATE PARK...
TRUMAN LAKE...                    CARL JUNCTION...
LAMAR...                          BAXTER SPRINGS...
EL DORADO SPRINGS...              COLUMBUS...
GALENA...                         ORONOGO...
SENECA...                         CARTERVILLE...
STOCKTON...                       DUQUESNE...
GREENFIELD...                     DUENWEG...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 9466 3734 9462 3738 9462 3756 9441
      3821 9389 3820 9367 3812 9350 3807 9350
      3807 9341 3803 9334 3724 9397 3676 9451
      3677 9462 3700 9462 3700 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 312DEG 22KT 3819 9382 3752 9435 3699 9495

LINDENBERG