Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

...Update to Aviation for 00Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Morning showers and storms have mostly dissipated as the LLJ began
to decay this morning and early afternoon. Additional development
is occuring down in the vicinity of Table Rock Lake on the edge of
the cold pool from earlier convection.

Additional showers and storms have already started developing
across central KS/OK. CAMs is showing this activity developing
into a complex of storms with east/northeast progression. Timing
and a contaminated airmass from earlier convection will generally
limit the overall severe potential, however, a strong storm or
two may be possible west of I49 with gusty winds being the primary
threat.

Flooding may become a concern over southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri overnight as additional heavy rainfall is expected with
the next round of storms overnight.

The surface frontal boundary and parent short wave is projected to
move through the region Friday morning/afternoon. Any
precipitation should come to an end quickly. Breezy, cooler, and
drier conditions are expected behind the frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

The long term starts with a ridge building across Texas expanding
eastward into the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A zonal
pattern sets up over us through the weekend. Dry and mild
conditions are expected through early next week.

A subtle wave is projected to move into the region on Monday. With
little return flow and poor moisture quality, think this period
will be dry with perhaps an increase in cloud cover. If enough
moisture can come together we may see an isolated shower or two,
however, left mention of this out for now.

Zonal flow returns through the remainder of the long term with a
warming trend expected by the end of next week as a ridge begins
to build into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A cold front is currently
pushing east across central Kansas early this evening. Storms are
developing along the cold front across central Kansas and also
ahead of the front across east central Kansas. The storms ahead of
the front across east central Kansas will continue to lift
northeast this evening and not affect the TAF sites.

The cold front will spread east into the area later this evening
into the overnight hours. A line of storms will push into far
southwestern Missouri later this evening, with showers and storms
expected to linger behind the front/leading line of storms for
several hours tonight. The storms will generally weaken as they
spread east and could totally dissipate before reaching the KSGF
and KBBG sites. The storms are expected to impact the KJLN site
later this evening into tonight.

Winds will switch from the southeast to northwest behind the front
overnight. MVFR and possibility IFR ceilings will be possible
behind the front early Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-072300-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
600 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS KANSAS THIS
  AFTERNOON AND WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR
  WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
  PORTERVILLE KANSAS TO FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO NEVADA MISSOURI
  BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
  AND 70 MPH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS. THERE
  WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR A TORNADO WITH THIS STORM. THESE STORMS
  WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY AFFECT THE FAR
  NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT
  ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
  TRACK EAST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
  HOURS. A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY
  WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN RISK. HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE
  STRONGEST STORMS. STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  STORMS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THEY APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 65
  CORRIDOR. LOCALIZED AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-44 MAY SEE AN
  ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE RISK
  FOR FLOODING OF MAINLY DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
  WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST
  CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

MOZ095-103-104-062030-
CHRISTIAN MO-TANEY MO-STONE MO-
305 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN...
NORTHWESTERN TANEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

AT 304 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
INDIAN POINT...OR NEAR KIMBERLING CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRANSON...                        TABLE ROCK STATE PARK...
TABLE ROCK LAKE...                LAKE TANEYCOMO...
HOLLISTER...                      SILVER DOLLAR CITY...
KIMBERLING CITY...                MERRIAM WOODS...
REEDS SPRING...                   ROCKAWAY BEACH...
BULL CREEK...                     INDIAN POINT...
BRANSON WEST...                   TABLE ROCK...
SPOKANE...                        CHESTNUTRIDGE...
WALNUT SHADE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR TABLE ROCK LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
10 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 9327 3660 9345 3685 9334 3687 9314
      3679 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 217DEG 13KT 3665 9335

HATCH

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