Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Ongoing convection continuing across primarily central into south
central Missouri at this time. This activity is the remnants of an
earlier MCS that is interacting with the northward advancing
surface warm front currently located across the northern CWA. This
activity should continue to progress across the area this
afternoon.

Models are hinting at yet another MCS developing overnight...but a
little further east than last night. Right now...this will
primarily affect central Missouri with wind being the primary
threat.

Otherwise...a strong upper level trough moving through the
Canadian Rockies will push the upper level ridge eastward and
allow the upper high to begin to build eastward. High temperatures
on Monday should be noticably warmer in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Heat index values will be in the upper 90s with a few areas
flirting with 100 degrees or above.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

As the upper high shifts eastward and the surface front moves
northward...rain chances will shift primarily to the eastern
CWA...along the eastern periphery of the high.

The primary concern then shifts to those higher heat index
values. Tuesday and Wednesday should be the peak days for heat
indicies. At this time...values look to be in the 100 to 107
range...so will continue to monitor for advisory criteria.

A second short wave moves across southern Canada on Thursday which
will allow a surface front to once again approach central Missouri
by Saturday and increase our rain chances once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Elevated convection has developed over the past couple of hours
north of the CWA in a northwest to southeast band. Most of this
activity should remain north of the CWA over the next couple of
hours before eventually drifing into the far northeast CWA.
Activity should remain well to the northeast of the terminal
locations with VFR conditions expected at all 3 forecast points.
Upper level ridge of high pressure should begin to build into the
area from the southwest.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020615-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
101 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT...AND
 AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WARSAW TO
 CAMDENTON TO SALEM.

 THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WHICH
 COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
 AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

 ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DURING
 THE DAY MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
 ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

 SOME AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS COULD
 SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S MONDAY
 AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH
 CENTRAL MISSOURI TUESDAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
 EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A STRONG WIND GUST...FREQUENT
 LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
 STORMS.

  TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
  MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND
  THURSDAY AS HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
  MID 100S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

MOZ056-057-010730-
MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
127 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN AND MILLER COUNTIES UNTIL
230 AM CDT...

AT 126 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
VERSAILLES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK...  LAKE OF THE OZARKS...
ELDON...                          OSAGE BEACH...
VERSAILLES...                     LAKE OZARK...
STOVER...                         LAURIE...
IBERIA...                         SAINT ELIZABETH...
ST. ELIZABETH...                  TUSCUMBIA...
GRAVOIS MILLS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3867 9284 3860 9284 3844 9264 3843 9241
      3834 9240 3834 9229 3832 9224 3834 9220
      3810 9218 3802 9220 3802 9239 3810 9259
      3821 9265 3822 9274 3819 9278 3831 9308
      3869 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 337DEG 29KT 3842 9276

FOSTER