Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Springfield, MO

354 
WWUS53 KSGF 080437
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1137 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

MOC011-217-080530-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-160708T0530Z/
VERNON MO-BARTON MO-
1137 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN VERNON AND EASTERN BARTON COUNTIES...

AT 1136 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF HUME TO NEAR ARCADIA...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT. THESE STORMS HAVE DOWNED MULTIPLE LARGE
         TREE LIMBS AROUND FORT SCOTT.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAMAR...                          GOLDEN CITY...
MONTEVALLO...                     WALKER...
MILFORD...                        KENOMA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9427 3792 9426 3788 9407 3736 9408
      3739 9426 3772 9427
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 265DEG 29KT 3795 9452 3765 9471 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHAUMANN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
627 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

After the last night storms system exited the region this
morning, short wave ridging moved over the region. This has
allowed most of the cloud cover to diminish and temperatures to
climb into the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. With the
additional rainfall overnight, humidities were once again high.

Strong southerly winds were helping to keep some of the low level
moisture from pooling across the region but also was aiding in
bringing additional Gulf moisture into the region. Temperatures
are expected to slowly climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s this
afternoon with heat index values climbing into the 100 to 105
range across southeastern kansas.

Similar to the past two nights, an MCS is expected to develop
across the northern plains and move southeast and into Missouri
overnight tonight. This system is expected to begin to move into
central Missouri around midnight and move south through Friday
morning. At this point, expectations tonight is for the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and impact much of
the Ozarks tonight through Friday morning. The primary hazard
will be damaging straight line winds though hail to the size of
quarters will also be possible with the stronger updrafts.

One thing that will aid as a focusing mechanism overnight, will
be a cold front that will also begin to move towards the region.
Models at this point do have some timing differences with the
front with the ECMWF faster than the GFS. THe EC moves the front
through by late Friday morning with the GFS slower, finally
moving the front just south of the Missouri/Arkansas state line
late Friday night into Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

The aforementioned cold front will become the focus for shower
and thunderstorms development again Friday night into Saturday
morning as the front stalls across southern Missouri or northern
Arkansas. This will provide the focus for additional strong to
severe thunderstorms as short wave energy moves across the region
which will be on the eastern edge of the upper level ridge. Once
again the expected threat will be for damaging winds and quarter
size hail.

One thing that will need to be watched as well is the potential
for isolated flooding across the region as the stalled front will
bring the potential for training storms over areas generally
along and south of I-44.

The upper level ridge will keep its position just west of the
Ozarks through the weekend and into the next week which will bring
additional chances for showers and thunderstorm activity to the
Ozarks through Monday.

Models attempt to shift the upper level ridge to the east or lay
it over the region for the middle of next week before shunting it
back west by the end of next week. This may allow for a return to
high heat indices for the middle of next week, but may be short
lived. Will monitor later forecasts for this though.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs:  A rather tricky forecast for the TAF
sites. Low level jet will strengthen again this evening with low
level wind shear becoming likely after 03Z. Next question is
convective potential. Short term models suggesting storms
developing across central Missouri this evening and then spread
southeast overnight. Still uncertain as to impact at the
Aerodromes, but any impact would likely be after 06Z. VFR
conditions expected, with MVFR possible within any storms. will
include Prob30 for this possibility.

There will likely be ongoing convection Friday morning as a
frontal boundary slides into southern Missouri by afternoon. This
will likely be the focal point for more storms that may impact
that terminals late in the TAF period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Raberding

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
756 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
756 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAYE DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH LIGHTNING
  BEING THE PRIMARY RISK.

  A STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
  NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ALONG A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS
  ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
  INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 70MPH AND HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF QUARTERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
  THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH
  INTO THE REGION AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS
  STALLED FRONT MAY ALSO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SOME LOCALIZED
  HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
  STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
  STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
  WEATHER CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEASAT KANSAS.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

RABERDING