Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
259 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

Strong convection moving across south central MIssouri this
afternoon is from the remnants of the MCS that moved across the
plains last night. This area of storms will continue to move east
across the eastern Ozarks this afternoon with the potential for
damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

The storms will move over an area that was not affected by last
night system and will be able to take advantage of 3000-3500j/kg
of CAPE. With little of no shear noted the hail potential will
be rather limited.

Models develop yet another area of rainfall and thunderstorms
across the southern half of the Ozarks tonight along a stalled or
stalling front. Where the boundary ultimately sets up shop
remains in question, but will likely be in the proximity of state
line. This boundary will help to focus showers and thunderstorms
across southern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas overnight
tonight. With PW values in from 1.5" to 2.0" and storms that
should train across the boundary, isolated flooding will be a
concern. Additionally, the boundary will produce a sufficient lift
focus for strong to isolated severe storms as well.

Through Saturday, a stronger short wave will move to the southeast
across the area during the afternoon. This will bring a
continuation of showers and storms and heavy rainfall to much of
the Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

For Saturday night into Sunday, the boundary will move very little
with another shortwave moving over the ridge and through the
region. Models are showing a slight southwards shift in the rainfall
for the day Sunday which would move the rain across northern
Arkansas or across extreme southern Missouri.

For next week, a slowly changing upper level pattern will continue
to bring slight rain and storm chances each day. Models slowly
shift the upper ridge east but have shortwave energy caught
underneath it which keep rain chances in the forecast.

This may bring a slow warming trend but temperatures will only
climb to around normal for this time of year with highs around 90
degrees.

Another front looks to move through the area by the middle of
next week with additional chances for strong storms towards the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG: Thunderstorms are beginning to move into
the vicinity of JLN and will affect SGF and BBG after 18z. More
convection likely to occur after 00z affecting all sites.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Foscato/Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
954 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091500-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
954 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN
  MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS FROM NORTHEASTERN
  OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

  THIS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
  DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR STRONG TO
  SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54
  WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
  60. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH A
  FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
  ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.

  A BOUNDARY WILL THEN SETUP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT AND
  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
  THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
  STORMS WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHERE STORMS TRACK
  OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH
  ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY.

  HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
  TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
  THERE IS A LIMITED RISK THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
  STRONG TO SEVERE. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
  IN A FEW SPOTS.

  HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ON MOST AFTERNOON
  SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
930 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E ROLLA               37.95N 91.67W
07/08/2016                   PHELPS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY NEAR COUNTY RD 3000 AND LITTLE DRY FORK.

&&

AFOSCATO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALNUT SHADE            36.73N 93.19W
07/08/2016                   TANEY              MO   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 160 IN NORTHERN TANEY
            COUNTY

&&

BOXELL