Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1230 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

After the last night storms system exited the region this
morning, short wave ridging moved over the region. This has
allowed most of the cloud cover to diminish and temperatures to
climb into the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. With the
additional rainfall overnight, humidities were once again high.

Strong southerly winds were helping to keep some of the low level
moisture from pooling across the region but also was aiding in
bringing additional Gulf moisture into the region. Temperatures
are expected to slowly climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s this
afternoon with heat index values climbing into the 100 to 105
range across southeastern kansas.

Similar to the past two nights, an MCS is expected to develop
across the northern plains and move southeast and into Missouri
overnight tonight. This system is expected to begin to move into
central Missouri around midnight and move south through Friday
morning. At this point, expectations tonight is for the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and impact much of
the Ozarks tonight through Friday morning. The primary hazard
will be damaging straight line winds though hail to the size of
quarters will also be possible with the stronger updrafts.

One thing that will aid as a focusing mechanism overnight, will
be a cold front that will also begin to move towards the region.
Models at this point do have some timing differences with the
front with the ECMWF faster than the GFS. THe EC moves the front
through by late Friday morning with the GFS slower, finally
moving the front just south of the Missouri/Arkansas state line
late Friday night into Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

The aforementioned cold front will become the focus for shower
and thunderstorms development again Friday night into Saturday
morning as the front stalls across southern Missouri or northern
Arkansas. This will provide the focus for additional strong to
severe thunderstorms as short wave energy moves across the region
which will be on the eastern edge of the upper level ridge. Once
again the expected threat will be for damaging winds and quarter
size hail.

One thing that will need to be watched as well is the potential
for isolated flooding across the region as the stalled front will
bring the potential for training storms over areas generally
along and south of I-44.

The upper level ridge will keep its position just west of the
Ozarks through the weekend and into the next week which will bring
additional chances for showers and thunderstorm activity to the
Ozarks through Monday.

Models attempt to shift the upper level ridge to the east or lay
it over the region for the middle of next week before shunting it
back west by the end of next week. This may allow for a return to
high heat indices for the middle of next week, but may be short
lived. Will monitor later forecasts for this though.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Strong to severe storms were moving
across southeast Kansas and into southwest Missouri. These storms
will affect the JLN terminal through about 08Z with strong winds.
Rather impressive outflow boundary now racing ahead of the storms
may affect the KSGF with wind gusts to 30 to 40 mph between 06Z-07Z.
Uncertain if storms will affect the KBBG terminal or stay just
north. Expect if they do to be on a weakening trend. VFR conditions
expected, with mainly MVFR to IFR in the stronger storms.

Frontal boundary expected to sag into the area later today and
will likely result in more convection for late in the day and
Friday evening. Still uncertain as to coverage so maintained VCTS
for the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Raberding

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
129 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

MOZ080-081-091-092-080715-
WRIGHT MO-LACLEDE MO-WEBSTER MO-DALLAS MO-
129 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DALLAS...WEBSTER...WESTERN
LACLEDE AND WESTERN WRIGHT COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 128 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO TO NEAR
BATTLEFIELD. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEBANON...                        BENNETT SPRING STATE PARK...
MARSHFIELD...                     BUFFALO...
ROGERSVILLE...                    SEYMOUR...
MORGAN...                         MANSFIELD...
FORDLAND...                       CONWAY...
URBANA...                         NIANGUA...
DUNCAN...                         DIGGINS...
PHILLIPSBURG...                   BENNETT SPRINGS...
LOUISBURG...                      TWIN BRIDGES...
TUNAS...                          PLAD...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 91 AND 136.

LAT...LON 3707 9290 3708 9290 3709 9306 3742 9308
      3742 9319 3790 9318 3789 9263 3780 9256
      3707 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 260DEG 36KT 3771 9316 3715 9336

SCHAUMANN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
139 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW WEST MINERAL       37.25N 94.96W
07/08/2016                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSED FLASH FLOODING IN SEVERAL LOW
            LYING AREAS IN WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY.

&&

DCRAMER

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