Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Blacksburg, VA

713 
WWUS51 KRNK 240032
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
832 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

NCC033-VAC083-240042-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-160624T0030Z/
CASWELL NC-HALIFAX VA-
832 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
EASTERN CASWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3625 7939 3626 7939 3671 7908 3657 7873
      3654 7873 3654 7914 3624 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 322DEG 34KT 3663 7907 3625 7931 

$$

DS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
729 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east out of the Ohio Valley this
evening, and then push off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight,
allowing a trailing cold front to drop south into the region on
Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
impact much of the region into tonight as this system moves
through the area. The front slides to the south of the area Friday
night allowing drier high pressure to slowly build in from the
north this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Update at 725 PM EDT Thursday...

Opted to extend the going flash flood watch until 03z/11 pm given
continued training storms and to better match neighbors along with
severe watch 291. Still appears that loss of instability should
finally allow storms to weaken around midnight.

Previous discussion as of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Bands of deep convection continue across the north, one associatedwith
the residual outflow from the earlier MCS, and another farther
north along the actual surface front. Short term guidance
continues to struggle on future placement of stronger storms with
some feeding ongoing coverage southeast across the Blue Ridge,
with added development over the south/west where current CAPE
values have zoomed up to above 2000 J/KG per heating. Others tend
to work new development down the western mountains and then unzip
east over the south into the instability gradient. For now think a
blend in order with current coverage likely heading east/southeast
with some of this coverage gradually filling in farther south as
more heating is realized. Thus plan to shift higher
likely/categorical pops farther south into the early evening
before loss of heating causes coverage to fade. Given
unidirectional flow and stronger winds aloft good potential for
added training and clusters of multicellular damaging wind
producing storms through early evening. Therefore planning to keep
the earlier expanded flood watch going and not go further east for
now pending trends. Lows still warm/muggy in the 60s to lower 70s.

Uncertainty exists in the location of the surface boundary on Friday
with potential affects from organized convection through this
evening and debris clouds early Friday. Models have again slowed up
the southward progress of the boundary given only weak surface
ridging to the north and weak low pressure along the front. This
along with continued westerly flow should allow any residual clouds
to erode by midday resulting in a quick uptick in instability espcly
southern/eastern sections in the afternoon. Latest SPC Day2 has
beefed up much of the region to slight risks pending trends with the
above scenario. Otherwise bumping up pops to high chance/low likelys
espcly Blue Ridge east where the better severe threat may exist.
Highs likely a bit warmer without much morning convection so
thinking mostly 80s, to around 90 Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...

Surface front should finally slide south of the region Friday night
into Saturday allowing a gradual infiltration of drier air in the
wake of weak low pressure to the southeast. Will keep in some low
pops for evening coverage given lingering instability and low level
moisture along the Blue Ridge, followed by clearing overnight. Weak
high pressure will build in with weak low level wedging under high
heights aloft on Saturday. However still appears just enough
weakness and residual moisture to pop isolated afternoon showers
mountains otherwise partly cloudy.

Drier air may enhance a bit by Sunday as the surface high noses in
from offshore while the low level flow deepens a bit from the
northeast. This will also result in weak return flow taking shape
over the far west where some low pops likely needed otherwise
keeping it dry with more sun possible.

Highs mostly in the 80s with little change in airmass in the wake of
the weak front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Repeat scenario of the upper pattern seen in the past few weeks will
return by next week as a large 5h low slides east over the western
ridge and helps dig out another eastern trough. This should propel a
couple associated surface cold fronts through the region with the first
Monday, and another later Tuesday when somewhat drier/cooler air looks
to advect in. Ahead of these boundaries will see moisture quickly
return Sunday night and moreso on Monday when models show decent higher
pwats and subsequent more widespread showers/storms. Thus including
high chance to likely pops Monday. Deeper pwats may start to exit
Monday night into Tuesday but still enough residual low level moisture
to support widely scattered showers into Tuesday before the secondary
front crosses. Drier air follows the front Tuesday night into Wednesday
as weak high pressure builds in ahead of yet another impulse rounding
the base of the upper trough Wednesday night into Thursday. This may
drive a weak area of low pressure east along the residual front
resulting in another round of showers by day7. Temps look to stay near
seasonal norms for most of the period except perhaps a bit cooler by
the end of the week with more clouds/showers around.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR has returned to most locations outside of the Greenbrier
valley where training cells continue to result in MVFR to IFR in
heavier showers and storms. Expect this trend to continue to with
poor flying conditions around KLWB to KHSP and perhaps out to just
west of KLYH over the next few hours.

Provided added heating which has been slow to occur in the wake of
the early morning storm complex, expecting the redevelopment of at
least scattered shra/tsra this afternoon and evening across the
region. However exactly where and how widespread any added
coverage will be elsewhere remains uncertain, so keeping mostly a
vicinity mention for shra/tsra going with tempo groups where
closer to the current convective axis across the north. Should
finally see the front to the north dip south and gradually shove
deeper convection into southern areas by early this evening and
out of the area after midnight. Therefore cutting back to mostly
VFR cigs and without any convective mention overnight with areas
of dense fog possible espcly in the valleys where MVFR to LIFR
could occur.

Should be just north of the front on Friday although moisture will
be slow to completely exit espcly in the low levels that could
again fuel a few bands of shra/tsra in the afternoon. Otherwise
looking at becoming VFR most sections by mid/late morning once low
clouds/fog erode.

Extended discussion...

High pressure will try to build from the northeast on Saturday,
but there should be enough instability over the mountains for
isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms during the weekend.
Coverage of these storms should increase by Monday before becoming
more isolated on Tuesday with the passage of another cold front.
Overall, expect periods of IFR/MVFR within the showers and
thunderstorms and also during potential early morning fog due to
increasing moisture at the ground.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flash flood watch now in effect into early this evening with the
inclusion of Rockbridge, Botetourt and Amherst counties. Added
storm complexes along with training bands could lead to more
widespread flash flooding given very low flash flood guidance
attm, and possible added 1 to 3 inches of rain in spots. Heavy
rainfall also possible south of the watch area but thinking only
isolated flooding at this point given somewhat less rainfall in
these areas of late.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ007-019-
     020-023-024-035.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WERT
HYDROLOGY...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAZ007-019-020-023-024-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-242330-
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
718 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 291 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ002>006-VAZ009>018-022-032>034-043>046-058-059-242330-
ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-PATRICK-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
718 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 291 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001-018>020-VAZ047-242330-
ASHE-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-BUCKINGHAM-
718 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ADDED COMPLEXES OR BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             5 W BEDFORD             37.33N 79.61W
06/23/2016  E2.75 INCH       BEDFORD            VA   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL MINUTES OF ONE TO TWO INCH HAIL WITH A FEW
            BASEBALL SIZE HAILSTONES ON MAGNOLA DRIVE.CARS DAMAGED.

&&

HYSELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
711 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

WVZ044-507-232345-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-MONROE-
711 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL GREENBRIER AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 710 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ALDERSON...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RONCEVERTE...
ALDERSON...
GREENBRIER STATE FOREST...
ORGAN CAVE...
AND FAIRLEA.

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3773 8065 3780 8061 3776 8031 3764 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 289DEG 22KT 3776 8058

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
720 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             5 S CLUSTER SPRINGS     36.54N 78.90W
06/23/2016  M2.75 INCH       PERSON             NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS OF BASEBALL SIZE HAIL ON HWY 501 JUST
            NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
728 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE RENICK             37.99N 80.36W
06/23/2016                   GREENBRIER         WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS TREES DOWN ON AUTO ROAD NEAR
            RENICK WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW MT AIRY           36.98N 79.24W
06/23/2016                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ON
            WATLINGTON ROAD NEAR MT AIRY VIRGINIA.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             5 S CLUSTER SPRINGS     36.55N 78.90W
06/23/2016  M2.75 INCH       HALIFAX            VA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS OF BASEBALL SIZE HAIL ON HWY 501 JUST
            NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.

&&

HYSELL