Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Blacksburg, VA

080 
WWUS51 KRNK 231942
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAC031-037-083-232015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0116.000000T0000Z-160623T2015Z/
CHARLOTTE VA-CAMPBELL VA-HALIFAX VA-
342 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN CHARLOTTE...SOUTHEASTERN CAMPBELL AND NORTH CENTRAL
HALIFAX COUNTIES...

AT 342 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HAT CREEK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROOKNEAL...
CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...
PHENIX...
RED HOUSE...
AND ASPEN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR YOUR
SAFETY...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3707 7906 3714 7907 3718 7904 3721 7887
      3707 7854 3687 7884
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 304DEG 40KT 3711 7893 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DS

239 
WWUS51 KRNK 232008
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAC031-037-083-232017-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0116.000000T0000Z-160623T2015Z/
CHARLOTTE VA-CAMPBELL VA-HALIFAX VA-
408 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN
CHARLOTTE...SOUTHEASTERN CAMPBELL AND NORTH CENTRAL HALIFAX COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
VIRGINIA.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

BE ADVISED THAT...WHILE THIS WARNING HAS ENDED...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL CAMPBELL COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3707 7906 3714 7907 3718 7904 3721 7887
      3707 7854 3687 7884
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 305DEG 26KT 3711 7893 

$$

DS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
235 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east out of the Ohio Valley this
evening, and then push off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight,
allowing a trailing cold front to drop south into the region on
Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
impact much of the region into tonight as this system moves
through the area. The front slides to the south of the area Friday
night allowing drier high pressure to slowly build in from the
north this weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Bands of deep convection continue across the north, one associatedwith
the residual outflow from the earlier MCS, and another farther
north along the actual surface front. Short term guidance
continues to struggle on future placement of stronger storms with
some feeding ongoing coverage southeast across the Blue Ridge,
with added development over the south/west where current CAPE
values have zoomed up to above 2000 J/KG per heating. Others tend
to work new development down the western mountains and then unzip
east over the south into the instability gradient. For now think a
blend in order with current coverage likely heading east/southeast
with some of this coverage gradually filling in farther south as
more heating is realized. Thus plan to shift higher
likely/categorical pops farther south into the early evening
before loss of heating causes coverage to fade. Given
unidirectional flow and stronger winds aloft good potential for
added training and clusters of multicellular damaging wind
producing storms through early evening. Therefore planning to keep
the earlier expanded flood watch going and not go further east for
now pending trends. Lows still warm/muggy in the 60s to lower 70s.

Uncertainty exists in the location of the surface boundary on Friday
with potential affects from organized convection through this
evening and debris clouds early Friday. Models have again slowed up
the southward progress of the boundary given only weak surface
ridging to the north and weak low pressure along the front. This
along with continued westerly flow should allow any residual clouds
to erode by midday resulting in a quick uptick in instability espcly
southern/eastern sections in the afternoon. Latest SPC Day2 has
beefed up much of the region to slight risks pending trends with the
above scenario. Otherwise bumping up pops to high chance/low likelys
espcly Blue Ridge east where the better severe threat may exist.
Highs likely a bit warmer without much morning convection so
thinking mostly 80s, to around 90 Piedmont.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...

Surface front should finally slide south of the region Friday night
into Saturday allowing a gradual infiltration of drier air in the
wake of weak low pressure to the southeast. Will keep in some low
pops for evening coverage given lingering instability and low level
moisture along the Blue Ridge, followed by clearing overnight. Weak
high pressure will build in with weak low level wedging under high
heights aloft on Saturday. However still appears just enough
weakness and residual moisture to pop isolated afternoon showers
mountains otherwise partly cloudy.

Drier air may enhance a bit by Sunday as the surface high noses in
from offshore while the low level flow deepens a bit from the
northeast. This will also result in weak return flow taking shape
over the far west where some low pops likely needed otherwise
keeping it dry with more sun possible.

Highs mostly in the 80s with little change in airmass in the wake of
the weak front.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Repeat scenario of the upper pattern seen in the past few weeks will
return by next week as a large 5h low slides east over the western
ridge and helps dig out another eastern trough. This should propel a
couple associated surface cold fronts through the region with the first
Monday, and another later Tuesday when somewhat drier/cooler air looks
to advect in. Ahead of these boundaries will see moisture quickly
return Sunday night and moreso on Monday when models show decent higher
pwats and subsequent more widespread showers/storms. Thus including
high chance to likely pops Monday. Deeper pwats may start to exit
Monday night into Tuesday but still enough residual low level moisture
to support widely scattered showers into Tuesday before the secondary
front crosses. Drier air follows the front Tuesday night into Wednesday
as weak high pressure builds in ahead of yet another impulse rounding
the base of the upper trough Wednesday night into Thursday. This may
drive a weak area of low pressure east along the residual front
resulting in another round of showers by day7. Temps look to stay near
seasonal norms for most of the period except perhaps a bit cooler by
the end of the week with more clouds/showers around.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR has returned to most locations outside of the Greenbrier
valley where training cells continue to result in MVFR to IFR in
heavier showers and storms. Expect this trend to continue to with
poor flying conditions around KLWB to KHSP and perhaps out to just
west of KLYH over the next few hours.

Provided added heating which has been slow to occur in the wake of
the early morning storm complex, expecting the redevelopment of at
least scattered shra/tsra this afternoon and evening across the
region. However exactly where and how widespread any added
coverage will be elsewhere remains uncertain, so keeping mostly a
vicinity mention for shra/tsra going with tempo groups where
closer to the current convective axis across the north. Should
finally see the front to the north dip south and gradually shove
deeper convection into southern areas by early this evening and
out of the area after midnight. Therefore cutting back to mostly
VFR cigs and without any convective mention overnight with areas
of dense fog possible espcly in the valleys where MVFR to LIFR
could occur.

Should be just north of the front on Friday although moisture will
be slow to completely exit espcly in the low levels that could
again fuel a few bands of shra/tsra in the afternoon. Otherwise
looking at becoming VFR most sections by mid/late morning once low
clouds/fog erode.

Extended discussion...

High pressure will try to build from the northeast on Saturday,
but there should be enough instability over the mountains for
isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms during the weekend.
Coverage of these storms should increase by Monday before becoming
more isolated on Tuesday with the passage of another cold front.
Overall, expect periods of IFR/MVFR within the showers and
thunderstorms and also during potential early morning fog due to
increasing moisture at the ground.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flash flood watch now in effect into early this evening with the
inclusion of Rockbridge, Botetourt and Amherst counties. Added
storm complexes along with training bands could lead to more
widespread flash flooding given very low flash flood guidance
attm, and possible added 1 to 3 inches of rain in spots. Heavy
rainfall also possible south of the watch area but thinking only
isolated flooding at this point given somewhat less rainfall in
these areas of late.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ007-019-
     020-023-024-035.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WERT
HYDROLOGY...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
247 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAZ007-019-020-023-024-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-241900-
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
247 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
ARE LIKELY INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>018-022-032>034-043>047-058-059-241900-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
247 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ADDED COMPLEXES OR BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS...MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
249 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SE RUPERT             37.92N 80.64W
06/23/2016                   GREENBRIER         WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUTE 60 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER BETWEEEN SAM BLACK AND
            RAINELLE.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
250 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNW RUPERT            38.02N 80.73W
06/23/2016                   GREENBRIER         WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER ACROSS ROUTE 20 BETWEEN CHARMCO AND QUINWOOD.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
251 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW RUPERT             37.98N 80.72W
06/23/2016                   GREENBRIER         WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EVACUATIONS TAKING PLACE IN HINES DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

JMORROW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
302 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAZ019-023-WVZ507-231930-
BOTETOURT-ALLEGHANY-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
302 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CITY OF
COVINGTON...NORTHWESTERN BOTETOURT...SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGHANY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GREENBRIER COUNTIES...

AT 301 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR
ALLEGHANY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLEGHANY...
COVINGTON...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
JORDAN MINES...
AND ORISKANY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3772 7975 3755 7988 3760 8001 3763 8003
      3766 8003 3763 8008 3777 8044 3788 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 296DEG 30KT 3776 8016

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
315 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 WNW RUPERT            37.97N 80.79W
06/23/2016                   GREENBRIER         WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUTE 20 FROM THE FAYETTE COUNTY LINE TO RAINELLE CLOSE
            DUE TO 5 FEET OF WATER.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NE WHITE SULPHUR SPRING 37.80N 80.29W
06/23/2016                   GREENBRIER         WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROCKY GAP TRAILER PARK COMPLETELY FLOODED.

&&

JMORROW